


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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635 FXUS63 KDLH 291130 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible mainly in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. - Lingering non-severe showers and thunderstorms on Monday. - Mainly quiet weather from Tuesday onward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 A line of thunderstorms is moving into north-central Wisconsin and the UP this morning with lingering stratiform rain and a weak MCV behind it. This should all exit the region within a few hours. Behind all this, the air should be pretty stable, and thus PoPs have been trimmed for the morning. We should end up with some partial sunshine for the mid-to-late morning hours with pretty quiet weather overall. The main focus for some thunderstorm development this afternoon will be northwest Wisconsin as a weak upper level trough swings through along with a weak cold front. Convective parameters are looking only marginally suggestive of severe weather potential. We should have some good instability developing (a couple thousand J/kg or so), but wind shear is looking like it`ll generally be below 30 kt through the afternoon. We may still end up with a few quick storms capable of large hail and damaging winds with low-end severe criteria (e.g. quarter size hail or so, and ~60 mph winds). They will probably be rather unorganized and with severe threats being pretty short lived. We`ll still be hanging on to 90th percentile PWATs around 1.5", but without much broad coverage of storms, flooding threats look pretty minimal (~5% chance). SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather covering northwest Wisconsin, along with a marginal risk for excessive rain from WPC. These outlooks are consistent with what we are expecting for impacts, which should be isolated. There is a somewhat conditional threat for fog, and perhaps some dense fog, particularly over northwest Wisconsin tonight. The more rain that falls during the day, the more low-level moisture will be available for fog development. But even absent of that, winds should lighten up and there should be some partially clear skies, so that gives about a 50% chance for fog and some locally dense fog. On Monday, an upper level trough is still expected to pass through, and with some low-end favorable instability (up to 1 kJ/kg MUCAPE), we will probably see some showers and non-severe thunderstorms. These will probably be a combination of diurnally and synoptically forced. They will probably organize themselves such that there will be periods of rain/thunder and periods where there is sunshine, particularly Monday afternoon in peak diurnal heating. Tuesday through Thursday, we settle into a west/northwest flow pattern with broader ridging to the west. This is looking to be a generally quiet weather period, though there are some hints that there could be a weak passing upper level wave that could bring some showers around Wednesday or so. As the ridge axis and attendant surface high pass through Wednesday-Thursday, we may get a southerly flow pattern for the end of the week, which could bring more warm air and moisture advection north. We could see some warmer temperatures and perhaps more thunderstorm chances with that. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Some fog looks like it may persist for an hour or so at BRD/HIB. After that, mainly VFR conditions expected today with occasionally breezy conditions with gusts up to 15 kt at some terminals. There is a possibility for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, though timing of these and whether or not they will directly impact terminals on the Minnesota side is highly uncertain. The best chances for storms this afternoon will be at HYR (50-60% chance). There is about a 5% chance that any storms may be strong to severe there as well, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. There should be some partially clearing skies this evening, and while VFR conditions should prevail, there is ~50% chance that there could be some dense fog developing, mainly around HYR, later this evening and overnight. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Aside from some lingering gusty and erratic winds as thunderstorms pass through, winds are expected to settle to light southwesterlies just after sunrise. Wind gusts are expected to pick up to around 15 kt this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening as well. A storm or two capable of producing some large hail to quarter size or wind gusts to 50 kt can`t be ruled out, but it`s only a 5% chance. Winds will remain southwesterly predominantly into Monday, and some gusts to around 20 kt are possible. Additional non-severe storms are possible on Monday (50% chance). For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION...JDS MARINE...JDS