Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 121727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

It will be a breezy day across the Northland as north winds usher
in colder air from Canada. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies of
cumulus to develop by this afternoon across all but central and
west-central MN, where it will be sunnier. Gusts should be about
15 to 20 mph, but maybe into the 20 to 25 mph range if the cloud
cover does not tamper down mixing efficiency as much as expected.
There will be light lake effect snow showers and flurries downwind
of Lake Superior in northern WI. Highs should mostly be in the
lower and middle 30s, but could reach the upper 30s in parts of
central and north-central MN due to more sun and the albedo caused
by the pine trees.

High pressure will begin nudging into the Northland from the west
tonight, but much of the region will maintain that cold north
flow. Expect overnight clearing, but light lake effect snow in
northern Wisconsin. There could be up to an inch of snow for areas
near the Gogebic Range. Lows will be about 10 to 15 degrees.

Tuesday looks sunnier since the high pressure will move through
the region. The lake effect snow in northern WI will diminish
through the day as the northerly flow weakens and becomes
westerly. Highs should at least be in the upper 20s to lower 30s,
but we might need to increase the temperatures even more to better
account for the strength of that sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Tuesday night remains quiet with a ridge with a ridge sliding
slowly south across the area. However, Wednesday we have another
shortwave and cold front drop through the area, and while it does
not appear as if we will have enough moisture for precipitation,
cloud cover is likely to increase at least some in the vicinity of
the front. Wednesday night and Thursday ridging builds in once
again, with decreasing clouds again and colder overnight

Beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend we get into a
period where the upper level pattern has been particularly
uncooperative in allowing the models to get a good handle on it.
The upper level pattern is blocky in nature, with ridging over the
central CONUS and cut off lows over the coasts. This kind of
pattern is difficult as the shortwaves that eject out of the
western low can have a significant impact on the local weather,
but have poor predictability at this time range. I do expect
improvement in the model spread tomorrow night or Tuesday as the
upper low approaches the west coast and the upper air network
samples it, but until then I have poor confidence in the forecast
starting about Friday night/ Saturday. For now am maintaining a
consensus blend forecast with some small pops for Saturday and
Saturday night, though the generally better ECMWF keeps the
forecast dry through Sunday. These pops may very well disappear in
the next few model runs. Early next week the models are bringing
the main upper low out of the Rockies and over the plains, where
it is likely to develop into a fairly strong late winter/early
spring storm. Someone is going to get some active weather. Whether
it affects our area or not is still in question, with most of the
models keeping it too far south, but the GFS does slide some
precipitation our way. Have some pops in the forecast as I cannot
discount that solution at this point. Temperatures through the
weekend and into early next week should be near to above normal
for this time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR conditions expected through the 18z TAF period. North to
northwest flow will persist through the morning hours Tuesday as
we remain between high pressure, located over southeast
Saskatchewan, and low pressure over lower Michigan. Winds could
gust up to 20 kts today as we remain within the tight surface
pressure gradient between the high and low. Some stratocumulus
clouds are anticipated today, with SCT to BKN ceilings between 4
to 5 kft, as higher relative humidity air moves southward.


DLH  33  14  32  18 /   0   0   0   0
INL  33  10  35  16 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  35  14  35  16 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  36  15  32  15 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  36  18  30  16 /  10  20  20  10




SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
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