Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250841

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
341 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High pressure will dominate over the Northland today, bringing
abundant sunshine. While relative humidities will dip mainly into
the 15 to 25 percent range, winds will remain too weak to pose an
elevated fire danger threat. The strongest wind gusts will be
confined to Koochiching county, where southwest winds could gust
to between 15 to 25 mph. Due to the southwest flow, have increased
the high temperatures in north-central Minnesota by a degree or
so. Otherwise, no change to the forecast for today, with highs in
the middle 40s over the Minnesota Arrowhead where southerly flow
will bring cooler temperatures off Lake Superior, into the middle
50s to middle 60s further inland.

A positively tilted mid-level trough and an associated cold front
will then dive southeast across the region after midnight
tonight, bringing increased cloud cover and chances of mainly
light rain to the Northland through Thursday morning. There may be
a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain, but these should be very
isolated. Confidence in the timing of the cold front and
precipitation is a bit low due to model differences, especially in
the high-resolution mesoscale models, with the WRF NMM and WRF
ARW models both a few hours faster compared to the NAMNest. There
is a bit better agreement in the timing for the synoptic guidance,
with the GFS and ECMWF in decent agreement bringing the
precipitation into Duluth by around 12z to 15z, but there`s still
differences in the QPF values. These model differences are also
evident in the QPF ensembles of the SREF and GEFS through 00z
Friday, with QPF ranges from a few hundredths of an inch up to
two-tenths of an inch at Duluth. The ensemble means are still only
around 0.05" for both ensembles, so confidence is still
reasonably high that QPF amounts will be less than one-tenth of an
inch. Precipitation will enter northwest Wisconsin by Thursday
afternoon, and exit by the evening. Areas in our western 1/3 of
the forecast area should see some sunshine by Thursday afternoon.
Highs Thursday will be a bit cooler compared to today due to the
cloud cover and precipitation, with highs ranging from the middle
40s over the Minnesota Arrowhead to the lower to middle 50s
further inland.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

An upper level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes from
Thursday night into Friday, as a strong shortwave dives southward
out of Canada. The shortwave and associated surface low is expected
to move across the western Lake Superior region late Thursday night
and Friday. Some snow showers should accompany the system Thursday
night and Friday morning, before changing to rain showers during the
day Friday. There could be some light snow accumulation in the
Minnesota Arrowhead and eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin, but
it should melt during the day Friday. Would not be surprised to see
an inch or two of new snow for those areas. The sharply amplified
upper level trough will then move slowly eastward over the weekend,
allowing an upper level ridge to park itself over the mid section of
the country on Sunday. By early next week, southwest flow will start
to push into the region, as a broad trough establishes itself over
the western states. As a result, we should start to see the
redevelopment of precipitation from Monday into Wednesday of next
week. We will carry POP`s from Monday afternoon through Wednesday.
Will have to watch this system closely throughout the week, as there
could be some periods of more substantial rainfall. A few
thunderstorms will also be possible given the surge of warm and
humid air throughout the middle of the country, and the development
of a west to east warm front across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures
on Friday and Saturday will range from the upper 40s in the
Minnesota Arrowhead, to the lower 60s in the Brainerd area.
Temperatures will rise considerably on Sunday, with highs ranging
from the 60s to lower 70s. On Monday and Tuesday, temperatures are
expected to be in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

An area of high pressure was across the Northland as of late evening
and will move southeast tonight into Wednesday. VFR conditions were
occurring across most of the Northland with some fog possible over
north central Wisconsin. The wind will continue to diminish then
become southwest on Wednesday as the axis of the high shifts further
south. The wind will increase through the day with gusts over 15
knots developing, mainly over northern Minnesota. VFR conditions are
expected into Wednesday evening.


DLH  60  37  52  31 /   0  20  30  20
INL  65  38  49  30 /   0  40  20  20
BRD  63  39  55  33 /   0  30  30   0
HYR  59  35  55  27 /   0  10  30  10
ASX  59  34  53  28 /   0  10  30  20




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