Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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459
FXUS65 KABQ 261155 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 AM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A dry upper-level trough and the associated backdoor cold front will
drop into NM today. West to northwest winds will increase during the
late morning and early afternoon across western and central NM with
gusts of 15-20kts. A relatively strong backdoor cold front will move
into far northeast NM around 12Z and into east-central NM between 15Z
and 17Z, reaching KROW around 18Z. Winds behind the front will be
from the north to northeast 15-25kts with gusts as high as 30kts. The
front will push wwd into the mid RGV around 26/23Z moving through
KABQ and KSAF with east and southeast winds gusting between 25-38kts
through 27/06Z. Winds will gradually diminish thereafter.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...237 AM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance is currently diving southeast toward New
Mexico, dragging a cold front along with it. This front will cool
temperatures a few degrees in the northeastern corner of the state
before spilling through the remainder of the eastern plains late
today. Gusty winds will accompany the front in the plains today,
spreading into parts of the Rio Grande valley this evening.
Increasing clouds will build over western New Mexico on Friday with
moisture gradually increasing, enough for a few showers and
thunderstorms, mostly in west central to southwestern parts of the
state. Into Saturday, moisture will increase more with brief-lived
isolated to scattered storms impacting a large swath of central New
Mexico. The moisture will shift to eastern New Mexico on Sunday with
a drying trend in the western and central zones. Breezy conditions
are expected on Sunday, turning more windy and even drier into
Monday as another upper level disturbance sweeps north of the Four
Corners.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short wave trough is currently crossing the WY-CO border and will
clip the northeast corner of NM today. Winds aloft will increase a
bit, but the bigger story remains at the surface where the cold front
and rather stout surface gradient will usher in breezy conditions to
northwestern NM and flat out windy conditions to the eastern plains.
Wind advisory will remain hoisted for the northeastern quadrant of
zones, and the remaining eastern tier of counties could encroach upon
wind advisory level winds too. Temperature trends are interesting, as
the northeastern plains will cool several degrees above yesterday`s
readings, but the remainder of the plains will actually warm a few
degrees above, still somewhat hampered by the front. Upslope areas
along the east faces of the central mountain chain could see some
high-based cumuliform build-ups today, but have kept silent POPs for
this area. The same goes for the west central/southwestern mountains
where a stray virga shower or two is not completely out of the
question.

Tonight will be interesting with a gusty east canyon wind spilling
into parts of the Rio Grande valley as the front advances westward to
Arizona. Day shift might need to consider a wind advisory for the
Albuquerque metro zone, similar to Tuesday evening`s event. This
front does not appear to have the immediate moisture behind it, and
thus a widespread stratus development is not anticipated overnight.

Into the daytime Friday, a ridge aloft will have its axis align with
the Rockies while a Pacific low makes landfall on the OR and SoCal
coast. The boundary layer flow will veer more southerly over NM, and
some of the low-lying moisture that will have pooled along/near the
leading edge of the front is expected to slosh up into the western
third of the state. Surface dewpoints and PWATs still appear quite
anemic, and forecast models indicate substantial mid level clouds
over the western part of the state. This could inhibit diurnal
heating and limit storm production, so caution and hesitancy exists
to include any substantial POPs for Friday and Friday evening, but
the 20 to 30 percent that will be posted with this forecast package
seems more than adequate.

During the day Saturday, some horizontal stretching will occur with
the low, and a southern vort lobe will round near and just north of
the Great Basin. This will introduce a slightly stronger
southwesterly wind component aloft into NM while boundary layer and
mid level moisture increases more. The NAM has come on board with a
better influx of moisture, bringing dewpoints into the 40`s along
with PWATs in the 0.6 to 0.75 inch range. This garners better
confidence in isolated to scattered storms over a large swath of
central NM, and while many showers/storms will be brief-lived due to
their relative quick motion, a decent coverage of at least some
measurable precipitation appears likely for many zones Saturday and
Saturday night.

The upper low will pinwheel over the northwestern states through
Sunday with the aforementioned southern-most vort lobe having ejected
into ID/MT and another one diving into NV. This will tighten the
gradient aloft more over NM while strengthening a lee side surface
trough. The increasing southwesterlies over the western two-thirds of
the state will shove the moisture into the eastern NM plains and
into west TX where showers and thunderstorms will be confined.

The base of the upper trough will cross just north of the Four
Corners on Monday with upper level winds and the surface gradient
increasing more in NM. This will dry things out more too. For now,
forecast models have come into better alignment with a trailing
trough/low that will follow on Tuesday, quickly diving into SoCal.
This would likely keep the dry and windy conditions intact over NM,
but a brief shot of precipitation could be in the cards for Wednesday
as the low lifts northeastward over the forecast area. Northwestern
and north central zones would be favored for precipitation, albeit a
brief opportunity.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A mainly dry northwest flow aloft will result in breezy north to
northwest winds for the western two-thirds of the state today.
Meanwhile across the east, another relatively strong backdoor cold
front will drop in from the north and northeast. Cooler air along
with strong north and northeast winds will develop across eastern
areas behind the front today. The front will push west and south
into the RGV and points west this evening and overnight. Unlike the
previous backdoor front, low level moisture is lacking and
widespread low clouds east of the central mountain chain are not
anticipated.

Surface and mountain top level winds are forecast to become
southerly Friday, drawing up Gulf moisture from northern Mexico.
This moisture is expected to result in isolated showers or
thunderstorms, a few possibly dry, over west-central NM Friday
afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will shift east
somewhat Saturday with the highest chances expected over central
portions of the state from the mid RGV north to the Jemez and Tusas
Mountains. The northeast third of the state is favored for showers
and a few thunderstorms Saturday night.

Increasing southwest winds will scour out the above mentioned Gulf
moisture Sunday. Brisk southwest winds and a dry airmass have the
potential to result in critical fire weather conditons early next
week, mainly east. GFS and ECWMF agree that an upper-level
trough/closed low bring showers back to the northwest half of NM
Wednesday.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ527-528-530-531.

&&

$$

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