Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 192341 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

VFR conditions to prevail during the next 24 hours. Low clouds
forecast to develop over portions of west TX may move in over
portions of far ern NM early Tuesday morning. Any low clouds that
move in will be short-lived as wly flow develops just after sunrise.



.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018...
The weather pattern has been much less windy today for most of New
Mexico, but the northeast corner of the state has been slower to see
the reduction in wind speeds. By midnight tonight, breezes should be
light throughout northern and central New Mexico with chilly
temperatures forecast overnight. A ridge of high pressure will then
swell over New Mexico Tuesday through late Wednesday. This will
induce a warming trend, with high temperatures reaching near normal
on Tuesday, and exceeding mid March averages on Wednesday. The
warmest day of the week for most of the state will be on Thursday,
when a few record high temperatures could be in jeopardy. Breezes
will also increase Thursday, turning even more windy into Friday and
the weekend. A quick shot of light precipitation could develop over
the north central and northwestern portions of New Mexico late
Thursday into Friday.


A secondary speed max aloft has been noted over NM today with a weak
short wave trough lagging behind yesterday`s low pressure system.
This has likely resulted in a brief uptick in mid-level wind speeds
while the northwesterly surface winds remain breezy in much of the
forecast area. Winds have been more stubborn to relax in the far
northeast corner of state where the surface gradient has remained
tighter, however these should be diminishing through the evening. A
stray shower cannot be ruled out in/near the northern mountains or
far northeast plains, but not much, if any, measurable or impactful
precipitation is anticipated.

Through Tuesday and Wednesday, the upstream ridge of high pressure
aloft will arch over AZ/NM, bringing a welcome break from the
widespread windy conditions. With rising pressure heights and
increasing tropospheric thickness values, temperatures will quickly
rebound back to normal by Tuesday, and even climb above into
Wednesday and Thursday. A few hours of breezy conditions are possible
Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly over the central highlands and the
higher elevation ridge tops of the central mountain chain.

A deep low will take shape offshore of British Columbia on Thursday,
and this will lead to an eastward shift of the western U.S. ridge.
The winds aloft will begin to back more southwesterly over NM, and
the lee side surface trough will deepen. Deep vertical mixing amid
the warm and thick boundary layer will usher stronger breezes down to
the surface Thursday afternoon with temperatures continuing to
climb. Temperature gains will especially be significant in the plains
where the downsloping wind component will lead to compressional
heating, and this could set the stage for several record high
temperatures to be broken.

The low will keep spinning over open water west of BC/WA through
Friday, and a separate shortwave trough will round the flow south of
it. This disturbance will cross the Four Corners region late Friday,
bringing a fast moving burst of precip over the northwestern to
north central parts of NM while also raising wind speeds over the
state. The Pacific low will be absorbed inland over the Intermountain
West, tracking well north of NM and keeping breezy to windy
conditions in the forecast for NM throughout the weekend while
limiting precipitation chances. More widespread critical fire
weather will also be re-introduced during this late week to weekend



An upper level perturbation in northwest flow aloft could trigger
some light snow showers in the northern mountains tonight. A dry and
low amplitude ridge of high pressure will then cross from the west
Tuesday through mid week with warming temperatures. Humidities will
fall below 15 percent again most places on Tuesday, except for some
higher readings across northwest areas. A lee trough and moderate
flow aloft will cause locally breezy conditions along and just east
of the central mountain chain, with a few hours of critical fire
weather conditions in the Clines Corners region Tuesday and Wednesday

The next extended period of critical fire weather conditions now
looks to begin Friday instead of Thursday, and it still looks to
impact locations mainly east of the central mountain chain.  It will
be plenty dry with above normal temperatures across the east on
Thursday, but breezy and critical fire weather conditions look like
they will be fairly localized across east central areas. Models are
in good agreement on an upper level trough that will eject
northeastward from the California coast across the central Rockies
during the latter half of the week. It will draw a speed maximum in
the polar jet stream over the state on Friday with breezy conditions
in the west. A surface trough in the lee of the southern Rockies
will help induce windy conditions across the east. Gusts should top
out around 40 to 50 mph along and east of the central mountain chain
Friday afternoon, causing critical fire weather conditions to become
widespread there. Temperatures across the east will vary around 15
to 20 degrees above normal across the eastern plains Friday. Across
central and western areas humidities will gradually increase
Thursday and Friday, so less of a fire weather concern there; except
Socorro County, where critical conditions are expected on Friday.

Critical fire weather conditions may extend as far west as the
central mountain chain on Saturday. Winds will weaken some as the
speed maximum begins to shift east of the forecast area, but it
looks breezy enough for some pretty widespread critical conditions
across the east.






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