375
FXUS65 KABQ 100610 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1210 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Hazardous heat is forecast for the northwest plateau today and
  Thursday, and over the middle Rio Grande Valley and West Central
  Highlands.

- For the remainder of the work week some gusty virga showers and
  dry thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon and early evening
  west of the central mountain chain and north of Highway 60.
  Wetting precipitation chances will begin to increase there this
  weekend into early next week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
  each afternoon and evening Friday through early next week from
  the central mountain chain eastward, and over the southwest
  mountains. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day with
  a heightened risk of burn scar flash flooding.

- Marginal risk of severe weather for eastern New Mexico tomorrow
  and Friday afternoons. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
  main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The center of the monsoon high is currently sitting
just west of the New Mexico and Arizona border, with 500mb heights
in the 596 through 599 dm range. Consequently, widespread high
temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s are forecast for the rest
of this afternoon along low lying areas in the Rio Grande Valley and
for much of northwestern New Mexico. A Heat Advisory is in effect
for the Northwest Plateau, including Farmington, through 7 PM MDT.
Another result of this slight westerly shift in high pressure is
that it has allowed for drier northwesterly air to infiltrate the
western part of the state. The local 18Z sounding shows that PWATS
are only slightly lower today as compared to yesterday, but with 40
to 50 degree dewpoint depressions for areas west of the central
mountain chain, chances for wetting rainfall are low. However,
moist low level upslope flow along eastern New Mexico will continue
to keep conditions juicy for areas along and east of the central
mountain chain. With model PWATS of about an inch and dewpoints
already in the low to mid 60s, efficient rainfall rates of half an
inch to an inch may be possible for any storms that develop south of
I-40. While a Cu field is already developing over much of the high
terrain, a strong cap has inhibited strong convection so far, so
most storms should initiate in the mid to late afternoon hours.

Given the antecedent conditions and flooding over the last few days,
there is another Flood Watch in effect for the Ruidoso area this
afternoon. Confidence for heavy rainfall is less today, with most
ensembles showing accumulations of about a quarter to half an inch.
Storm motion may also be a little bit more towards the southwest,
which may allow for precipitation to move over less sensitive parts
of the burn scars. Some CAMs are also depicting a later batch of
showers moving into the area from the north at around sunset, so
bumped up Pops to around 30% for the 6 to 9 PM time range. However,
the most recent model runs are showing these storms dissipating
before reaching the Ruidoso areas, so confidence for impacts is low.

On Thursday, the upper level high continues to shift westward and
becomes stretched due to a passing shortwave over the central
Rockies. Pressure heights will still be in the 592 through 596 dm
range over much of the state, so temperatures will once again be in
the upper 90s to lower 100s. Have issued a Heat Advisory from noon
to 7 PM on Thursday afternoon for the Northwest Plateau (including
Farmington), and the middle Rio Grande Valley and West Central
Highlands (including the Albuquerque metro). Temperatures between
100 and 104 degrees for areas under the Heat Advisory will lead to
moderate and major HeatRisk. Sensitive individuals should limit time
outdoors and make sure to stay hydrated throughout the day.

As the shortwave kicks through the Colorado Rocky Mountains and
clips northern New Mexico, forcing from this systems will allow for
an increase in thunderstorms coverage along the Sangre De Cristo
mountains and areas to the east. There is a marginal risk of severe
weather for northeast New Mexico on during the afternoon. While CAPE
values aren`t anything to rave about (1000 to 1500 J/kg), the
stronger shear aloft should be able to produce some more robust
thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds. Some CAMs are showing
storms could possibly congeal into a strong line over east central
New Mexico and persist through the begging of the evening past
sunset as it makes its way east. PWATs will not be anything out of
the ordinary for this time of year, and with storm motions being
faster, have opted to forgo a Flood Watch for both burn scars as
accumulations should remain under a quarter inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Dry air punches in behind Thursday`s trough, dropping PWATs to
below average throughout much of the state. Some moisture will be
replenished along eastern areas a backdoor front looks to push
through into the central mountain on Friday morning and early
afternoon. Another shortwave trough will dig south into northeast New
Mexico, bringing in another round of severe weather for areas east
of the central mountains, particularly for areas north of I-40 along
a frontal boundary. These thunderstorms could persist much later
into the evening, and some guidance is even hinting at an MCS
forming over the tri-state area of Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma,
possibly spilling over into Union county. Another backdoor cold
front looks to push through eastern New Mexico on Saturday morning
behind this second trough as well. A canyon gap wind may affect the
ABQ metro with both backdoor events and bring some gusty 15 to 20 kt
east winds.

Heading into the weekend, thunderstorm coverage looks to become
numerous to widespread, with a greater influx of moisture over the
region. On Saturday, New Mexico may find itself in between the
monsoon high over Baja California and a deepening low pressure
system over the Texas Panhandle. This pattern looks to usher in some
rich moisture from both gulfs into the region. Precipitation looks
to focus over areas along and east of the central mountain chain,
and with model PWATS in the 1.25 range, these storms could be
efficient rain makers. Ensemble guidance is showing that large
swaths of eastern New Mexico could see 48 hr rainfall totals of
0.5 to 0.75 inches for this weekend. The 90th percentile solution
shows areas like Roswell and clovis getting 1 to 2 inches. As a
result, there is increasing confidence of flash flooding,
particularly for the sensitive burn scar areas, each afternoon
from Saturday through Tuesday. A more typical monsoon pattern
develops for the beginning of next week as the high pressure
begins to reestablish itself over the Great Basin and afternoon
thunderstorms form over the high terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast along
and east of the continental divide on Thursday afternoon and
evening. Some storms will probably turn severe east of the
Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains by producing large
hail and damaging winds. Meanwhile, some virga showers and dry
thunderstorms mainly along and west of the central mountain chain
will produce dry microbursts with localized, brief, and erratic
wind gusts up to 45 knots. After midnight Thursday night,
isolated showers and thunderstorms may linger south of I-40 and
along and east of the south central mountains. Otherwise, high
temperatures along and west of the central mountain chain will
climb around 4 to 11 degrees above 30-year averages Thursday
afternoon, making density altitude an important consideration for
aviation operations near complex terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

With rain and moist conditions in the forecast for much of the state
throughout the period, fire weather concerns will remain minimal.
This afternoon and tomorrow, isolated virga showers and dry
thunderstorms for areas west of the central mountain chain may
create new fire starts. Temperatures will also be abnormally hot
throughout the next two days for most of the state, with highs in
the 100s for the middle and lower Rio Grande Valley area. A couple
of storm systems this weekend will bring some breezier and dryer
conditions to northwestern New Mexico. Meanwhile, areas along and
east of he central mountain chain look to get repeated rounds of
rainfall each afternoon through the beginning of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66 100  59  95 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  51  94  46  92 /  10  10   0   5
Cuba............................  60  94  57  92 /  10  20   5   0
Gallup..........................  58  96  53  94 /  10  10   5   0
El Morro........................  60  91  57  90 /  20  10  10   0
Grants..........................  61  97  57  94 /  10  20   5   0
Quemado.........................  63  93  61  91 /  20  20  20   5
Magdalena.......................  68  94  68  94 /  20  30  20   5
Datil...........................  62  92  64  90 /  20  30  20   5
Reserve.........................  59  98  56  97 /  30  30  30  10
Glenwood........................  64 103  63 102 /  40  30  20  10
Chama...........................  52  87  48  86 /   5  20   0  10
Los Alamos......................  64  91  63  89 /   5  20   5  10
Pecos...........................  59  90  59  88 /   5  40  10  30
Cerro/Questa....................  59  88  54  87 /   0  40  10  30
Red River.......................  50  79  46  78 /   0  50  10  40
Angel Fire......................  44  82  39  80 /   0  50  10  40
Taos............................  57  92  52  89 /   0  30   5  20
Mora............................  54  87  52  84 /   5  40  10  40
Espanola........................  63  98  59  97 /   5  20   5  10
Santa Fe........................  64  92  62  91 /   5  30  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  63  97  61  94 /   5  20  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  73  99  71  97 /  10  20  20   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  72 100  69  99 /   5  20  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  70 102  68 101 /   5  10  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  72 101  70  99 /   5  10  10   0
Belen...........................  68 101  67 102 /   5  10  10   0
Bernalillo......................  70 102  67 101 /   5  20  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  68 101  66 100 /   5  10  10   0
Corrales........................  71 102  68 101 /   5  10  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  69 101  67 100 /   5  10  10   0
Placitas........................  69  98  67  96 /   5  20  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  71 101  68  99 /   5  10  10   0
Socorro.........................  72 102  72 103 /  10  20  20   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  64  93  62  92 /   5  20  10  10
Tijeras.........................  67  95  65  93 /   5  20  10  10
Edgewood........................  59  94  58  92 /   5  20  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  95  57  93 /   5  20  10  10
Clines Corners..................  60  89  58  87 /  10  20  20  10
Mountainair.....................  64  94  60  92 /  10  30  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  62  93  60  92 /  20  30  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  66  94  67  97 /  20  20  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  61  87  63  89 /  10  30  20  30
Capulin.........................  59  87  53  82 /   5  50  40  30
Raton...........................  57  90  54  87 /   0  40  20  30
Springer........................  57  93  54  89 /   5  40  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  57  89  54  86 /   5  30  10  30
Clayton.........................  68  94  61  90 /   0  30  50   5
Roy.............................  63  90  57  87 /   5  30  30  20
Conchas.........................  67  98  63  94 /   5  20  30  10
Santa Rosa......................  64  96  62  91 /   5  20  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  67  95  63  92 /   0  10  30   5
Clovis..........................  67  96  66  94 /   0   0  20   0
Portales........................  67  97  66  95 /   0   0  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  97  65  96 /   0  10  20   0
Roswell.........................  69  99  72 100 /   0   5  20   0
Picacho.........................  64  96  66  95 /   5  10  20  10
Elk.............................  62  94  66  94 /   5  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ201-207-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...44