Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 141127 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
527 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, with periods of
VFR cigs. Increasing S-SW flow forecast in the lower levels of the
atmosphere today will result in gusts to between 30-35kts at KLVS and



.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018...
Low level moisture trapped underneath high pressure aloft will keep
skies mostly to partly cloudy today but temperatures will be several
degrees above seasonal averages. The high shifts east of the state
later today and southwest flow aloft moves in. Winds increase all
areas Thursday as a Pacific storm system noses in. Showers and high
mountain snow showers are forecast to move into the northwest third
of New Mexico Thursday while strong winds southwest winds blow
elsewhere. Cooler air will move in from northwest to southeast
Thursday night and Friday. Moderate to locally strong southwest winds
return for Saturday, ahead of another storm system expected to bring
a round of strong winds and showers and snow showers to northwest
New Mexico.


Quite the dirty ridge expected today with low level moisture trapped
underneath and high clouds moving east through northern NM ahead of
upper low just off the PACNW. South to southwest winds will develop
most areas this afternoon as the ridge axis slides east of the state.
Brisk southwest winds near mountain top level will move in from AZ
tonight and keep winds in the higher elevations going. These winds
will translate downward to the sfc on Thursday, resulting in
widespread strong southwest winds. Highest winds gusts (~45kt)
expected along and east of the central mountain chain Thursday
afternoon, possibly generating some local blowing dust. Meanwhile
across the northwest third, a relatively moist southwest flow will
bring scattered showers and mountains snow showers. Snow levels will
drop to around 7000 feet behind the associated cold front Thursday
afternoon with several inches of accumulation above 8500 feet in the
Tusas Mountains. Upper trough lifts northeast of the state Friday for
somewhat of a break from the wind, although the northeast will
remain rather windy.

Winds crank up again areawide Sunday as a short-wave trough swings
through NM. Another round of showers and mountain snow showers are
expected across the northwest third. GFS and ECWMF agree that this
trough will be farther south and colder with snow levels dropping
down to around 5500 feet across the far northwest Sunday. Dry and
cool weather moves in for Monday with a warming trend expected

GFS and ECMWF still at odds as to how the next upper level
trough/closed low in the far EPAC evolves mid-week next week. GFS
remains the deeper and farther south solution. ECMWF continues to be
farther north but has trended slightly farther south the past two
runs. Despite the recent deep convection just south of Hawaii, still
no clear indication that the GFS is on to something. The models will
hopefully sort things out by late this week.




More warming/drying forecast today, with a deepening lee side trough
and breezy to locally windy conditions by afternoon. A Pacific
trough will race across the southern Rockies Thursday, with the lee
side low deepening to between 990-995mb across eastern Colorado and
windy to very windy conditions developing across much of our area.
Moisture will increase across north central and northwest New Mexico
Thursday ahead of the trough, with increasing clouds and chances for
wetting precipitation. Strong downslope winds across the eastern
plains Thursday afternoon, with low humidity and well above normal
temperatures, will combine to bring several hours of critical fire
weather conditions. The watch for the northeast plains looks on
track and we added the east central plains. Drying will continue in
the wake of the departing Pacific trough on Friday, with a few hours
of critical fire weather conditions possible across/near the central

Winds will crank back up Saturday with a deepening lee side trough
ahead of another fast-moving Pacific trough. Critical fire weather
conditions are possible once again over a fairly large portion of
the eastern plains Saturday afternoon. Mixed signals for critical
fire weather potential Sunday across the eastern plains due to
moisture advection, lower Haines values and near normal

Limited critical fire weather potential early next week with weak
ridging across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest leading to
lighter winds, but dry conditions will remain through at least



Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ104-108.



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