Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS65 KABQ 121748 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

A widespread MVFR cloud deck near 040 across central and western NM
will slowly lift and scatter to near 050 thru 20Z. Shallow convective
clouds are forming in areas where low cigs clear and there is slight
potential for a couple light -SHRA this afternoon, particularly along
the Cont Dvd. MVFR cigs are expected to redevelop aft 03Z for nearly
the same area that experienced lower cigs this morning. A weak wind
shift will then move southwest across eastern NM aft 06Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION...1120 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018...
A quick update to the forecast was just sent to increase cloud cover,
as it appears things will be slow to clear out in many zones.
Consequentially, temperatures will likely struggle to climb to
earlier projected highs, so they were also tweaked down a few degrees
where cloud cover will be most dense.



.PREV DISCUSSION...302 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018...
Moist conditions will remain over the area today, with a warming
trend beginning. A weak backdoor cold front will keep temperatures
below normal Tuesday across eastern New Mexico, but the warming trend
will persist through mid week and temperatures will be back above
normal most areas by Wednesday. Moist southwest flow will keep
chances for showers going Wednesday and Thursday across western
portions of the state, while downslope winds help temperatures to
warm well above normal across the eastern plains on Thursday
afternoon. Winds will trend up toward the end of the week and
especially over the weekend as a potent Pacific storm system impacts
the region. Chances for precipitation will increase as well,
focusing across the west central and northern mountains Saturday
night through Sunday.


Last week at this time we were talking about record low PWATs and now
the 00Z KABQ upper air sounding showed a PWAT of 0.51", which is well
above the 90th percentile for the day...quite the contrast. Humidity
currently ranges from 75-100% across much of the area in the wake of
the departing shortwave trough, with moisture trapped in the lowest
portions of the boundary layer. The latest nighttime microphysics RGB
satellite imagery currently shows widespread low stratus across much
of the area, with the latest surface observations reporting little
to no fog. A gradual lowering of the status deck is possible, with
areas of fog by morning potentially impacting the morning commute.
Otherwise, a ridge will transitions east across the region through
Tuesday, brining a warming trend with relatively light winds. A
weak backdoor front will keep daytime temperatures below normal
across the eastern plains Tuesday, but will be above normal
elsewhere. Winds will pick-up from mid to late week thanks to a
deepening lee side trough and a large upper level trough/low
impacting the west coast and beginning to progress east into the
Intermountain West. Moist southwest flow ahead of the parent
trough/low with a leading shortwave trough progressing east in
advance of it will keep chances for showers going Wed/Thu across the
western and northern higher terrain, focusing near the CO border by
Chama and Dulce. Downslope winds across the eastern plains on
Thursday will help to bring daytime temperatures well above normal

There is disagreement among the 00Z medium range model solutions
with regard to the southward extent/placement and progression of the
upper low/trough through the weekend, which makes for an uncertain
forecast. The 00Z GFS operational solution is rather wet for western
and central NM, bringing a 541dam 500mb low northeast from over
southern California across AZ and into the southern/central Rockies.
The ECMWF is further north and therefore drier for our area,
favoring more of a critical fire weather scenario (see Fire Weather
discussion below for details). Both operational solutions bring a
swath of strong winds across our area Sunday into Monday.



Low level moisture will be slow to clear out of central and western
New Mexico today but a developing lee side trough/low over northeast
New Mexico will result in brisk south to southwest winds and rapid
drying. Winds across the eastern plains subside this evening, ahead
of a dry backdoor cold front forecast to slide south and west
through the plains after midnight. This front then stalls along the
east slopes of the central mountain chain Tuesday, pushing west
through the RGV to the divide Tuesday night.

A warming trend remains on tap for Wednesday underneath a transitory
upper high. This high shifts east of the state late-day Wednesday,
allowing a relatively moist southwest flow aloft to move over
northwest New Mexico. Models suggesting a few showers are possible
Wednesday and Thursday in a swath along/near the continental divide.
East of the central mountain chain, west and southwest wind will be
the rule with an hour or two of marginal to critical condtions
expected each afternoon. The relatively moist southwest flow aloft
is forecast to continue Friday but GFS and ECWMF are at odds with
how the upper low along the west coast evolves thereafter. A good
deal of uncertainty in the forecast exists beyond Friday with the
GFS much farther south and wetter than the ECMWF.





$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.