Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 181736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs...A strong storm system over the 4 corners
area, and a dryline west of the terminals, will move east across
the region through the TAF period. KDHT will be impacted first by
the dryline, followed by KAMA at 18/19Z and KGUY at 19/02Z.
Southwesterly winds of 15 to 25 kts will initially occur behind
the dryline before increasing to 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to 40
kts starting AFT 18/22Z (primarily for KAMA and KDHT). A strong
cold front will enter the region AFT 19/06Z, and switch wind
directions to the northwest and north at 20 to 30 kts with gusts
up to 40 kts AFT 19/06Z. Moisture behind the front may present
with MVFR CIG issues at KGUY AFT 19/11Z, with KAMA and KDHT
expected to be VFR throughout the period.



Amarillo TX                40  56  29  63  33 /   5   5   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  40  50  28  62  30 /  40  20   5   0   0
Boise City OK              35  51  25  59  29 /  20   5   5   0   0
Borger TX                  44  56  32  65  35 /  10   5   5   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              39  58  28  64  32 /   5   0   5   0   0
Canyon TX                  39  57  28  64  32 /   5   0   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               43  59  32  65  35 /   5   5   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 36  56  26  62  30 /   5   5   5   0   0
Guymon OK                  39  52  29  62  30 /  30  10   5   0   0
Hereford TX                38  59  27  64  32 /   0   0   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                43  52  31  63  32 /  40  10   5   0   0
Pampa TX                   41  55  30  62  33 /  20  10   5   0   0
Shamrock TX                44  59  34  65  34 /  10   5   5   0   0
Wellington TX              46  63  35  66  35 /   5   5   5   0   0


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 622 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

Some low clouds in the IFR range may move across AMA briefly this
morning. Also, some light rain may visit the AMA site, but
visibilities should remain VFR. Otherwise, skies should remain VFR
at all sites through this forecast. Winds will pick up by around
mid day and then they should peak by late this afternoon out of
the southwest. Winds will then turn more westerly this evening and
they will decrease some. However, they will become more northwest
at GUY and DHT after midnight and they will increase again back up
to around 30 knots with higher gusts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 435 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

A rather complex system will impact the Panhandles region today.
Fire Weather conditions are expected throughout the combined
Panhandles this afternoon. Some updates and discrepancies since
the last forecast package will be further discussed in the Fire
Weather discussion below.

Current satellite observations this morning has the main upper
level trough working its way across eastern Arizona. As the main
trough continues to move east across New Mexico throughout the
morning hours, subtropical moisture is advecting northeastward
across eastern New Mexico and the Texas South Plains from a small
disturbance ahead of the main trough. The latest hi-res
models/CAMs is illustrating some POPs across the south central
and southeastern Texas Panhandle as we go into the mid and late
morning hours. The best chances of precipitation reaching the
ground will be across parts of the southeastern Texas Panhandle
where low level moisture should be in place as the precipitation
approaches. Some locations across the south central and eastern
TX Panhandle could see some virga showers as the low level
moisture may not be present, however gusty winds at times from
these showers are possible as some of the sounding profiles in the
eastern Panhandles shows some gusty winds right above the
boundary layer. As the first batch of precipitation eventually
move to the east, the main trough, now negatively tilted over
northern New Mexico should move into the Panhandles region by mid
afternoon with a very steep height gradient south and southeast of
the apex of the trough. This meso-scale sinusoidal flow will
produce rather gusty winds under the areas highlighted by the wind
headlines. Although the latest MOS, and other numerical data
continue to down play the winds from previous runs, wind gusts
this afternoon into early evening should get to near 60 MPH at
times, especially in the SW Texas Panhandle under the High Wind
Warning. In-conjunction to the strong winds across parts of the
western Panhandles, the main trough will develop an upper level
low over the northeast Texas Panhandle. Out ahead of the low
pressure system in the far east central and northeastern
Panhandles downstream of the mid level vort max and in a region
with some low level moisture with southeasterly surface flow,
convection may develop as latest cross section profiles show some
elevated CAPE in the aforementioned region along with 15-25 kts of
SB shear. This will provide the chance of some storms with hail
and gusty winds. The area of showers and storms will move quickly
to the east in the evening hours as the main center of the upper
low moves east into northern Oklahoma by 06Z Monday.

If not to add more variety of weather to the forecast over next
24 hours, a Pacific cold front will work its way east across the
Panhandles on the back side of the upper level system. Starting
around 06Z Monday, surface winds will shift from westerly and
southwesterly to more northwesterly behind the front as it moves
east-southeast across the Panhandles. As temperature drop behind
the front in parts of the western OK Panhandle in a region of some
isentropic lift, some mixed precip of rain/snow may develop. No
snowfall accumulation is expected and should be rather short
lived. As we begin to mix down the stronger winds aloft behind the
front, a second period of strong winds will move along and just
in the wake of the front throughout the early and mid morning
hours on Monday. Additional wind headlines maybe needed for this
time period. By Monday afternoon, winds will diminish and
conditions will begin to improve across the region as the last of
the residual showers across the OK Panhandle will move east on the
backside of the system.

Going from Monday evening throughout the remainder of the forecast
period, dry conditions are expected as a mid level ridge builds
over the Four Corners region and the Panhandles are under a
westerly to northwesterly mid level flow. Temperatures will
slowly moderate through the week to becoming well above average
by the end of the week.


Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are
expected across the Panhandles today where a Red Flag Warning is
posted for the entire Panhandles region.

In particular, across the southwestern Texas Panhandles region
where min RH will be between 10-15% along with winds gusting up
to 60 MPH at times, especially in the mid afternoon, conditions
for fire weather are expected for several hours with Max RFTI of
4-5. As a dryline is expected to develop late this morning across
the western panhandles and move east throughout the afternoon,
some discrepancies between the hi-res model do want to limit its
extent eastward toward the eastern panhandles. However, current
ensemble forecasts does show dryline reaching the western OK
stateline as the main 500-300 hPa jet streak will help to push
along the dryline to the east. RH values will be slow to recover
overnight ahead of the Pacific front, especially in the western
panhandles where a Red Flag will continue until early Monday
morning given low RH values around 20% with gusty northwesterly
winds. Fire Weather conditions will diminish as we go into Monday
evening and into the middle of the week. Elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions, especially for the western Panhandles
may return toward the end of the week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CDT Monday for the
     following zones: Collingsworth...Deaf Smith...Donley...

     Red Flag Warning until 6 AM CDT Monday for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hansford...

     Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon CDT Monday for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...

     High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for the following zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham...

OK...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CDT Monday for the
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron...Texas.



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