Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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397
FXUS64 KAMA 162316
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
616 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period. Winds will
be out of the south around 15 kts overnight and southwest at 15
kts gusting to 25 kts Tuesday afternoon. Few to scattered clouds
will stick around mainly above 7k feet allowing for VFR CIGs. KGUY
may have some LLWS with a directional change of 30 degrees from
surface to 2k ft, between 09Z and 15Z Tuesday.

Hoffeditz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/

SHORT TERM...
Besides some gusty winds up to 35 kts for parts of the
northwestern Panhandles this afternoon, temperatures with the
southerly to southwesterly flow have rebounded nicely. All of the
Panhandles have warmed up nicely into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Partly cloudy skies with tranquil weather conditions will allow
low temps tonight to drop into the 60s with winds subsiding as
well. Going into the day on Tuesday, the main upper level trough
in the intermountain west will swing through and displace the
surface trough over more of the north central Panhandles. As a
result, stronger wind gusts over the northwest Panhandles on
Monday will shift to more of the north central and northeastern
Panhandles on Tuesday with gusts approaching 35 kts at times.
Otherwise, temperatures similar to Monday with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s on Tuesday.

On a side note, relative humidity values may be lower across the
northern Panhandles on Tuesday, but currently winds are not
expected to bring elevated Fire Weather conditions. As ERC`s are
still below the 50th percentile. If winds come in a bit stronger
and new ERC values come down, then we might be looking at elevated
Fire Weather conditions.

Meccariello

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night through Sunday Night...
High pressure will continue to shift east as the upper level trof
settles into the Pacific Northwest. Gradual increase in the
monsoon moisture will pick up Wednesday onward. There`s a very low
chance that we will see anything on Tuesday evening, and Wednesday
evening, but it`s not impossible. It looks like the southern
and eastern Panhandles have the best chances for a stray
shower/storm.

By Wednesday night surface flow will begin to shift more from the
southeast and higher dewpoints will be advected to the Panhandles,
providing a better chance of instability and thunderstorms occur
over the area. Most of the Panhandles will be in play for storms
Friday and Saturday, but will need to keep an eye on the lee
surface low, as it`s currently holding over southeast CO and
cutting off the northwest from storm chances. Essentially, the
dryline setup looks to be along the NM/TX border and extends just
west of the Guymon area.

By Sunday afternoon there is a hint that a cold front may move
through the Panhandles and dry out the area, and cut off most
means of precipitation.

Weber

AVIATION... /Issued 1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/
VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. To start
the TAF period, winds will be out of the southwest 15-25 kts with
gusts up to 30 kts at times. These winds will subside to 10-15 kts
after 03Z before increasing to 15-20 kts out of the south past 12Z
Tuesday to the end of the TAF period with partly to mostly clear
skies.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

36/15



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