Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201956
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
256 PM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow Night...

Looking glance out the window this afternoon shows some sunny
skies with a few cumulus clouds left. Satellite shows a similar
picture across the Panhandles. The sun won`t help us warm up to
the 70s like yesterday though. The Canadian air mass in place with
northerly winds will keep us in the upper 40s to low 50s today.
With clouds cleared out, the overnight temps will drop below
freezing with all but the southeast looking for Hard Freeze
Warning criteria. Satellite also shows some low to mid level
moisture shifting southward through the Plains. This moisture and
cloud cover should arrive in the Panhandles in the early morning
hours. The blanket of clouds won`t stop the area from sinking into
the mid and upper 20s overnight, but it may prevent us from seeing
even lower temps in the low 20s as a good amount of radiational
cooling can still take place through the late evening hours.
Wednesday will start off cloudy, similarly to today, and will
slowly clear clouds across the southern Panhandles thanks to the
southerly flow bringing WAA at the surface. The northern
Panhandles though will likely remain in clouds as the mid level
moisture lingers and a mid level shortwave moves through the flow.
Another shortwave looks to pass through the Plains overnight into
Thursday morning. This will again bring cloud cover to the area
for the overnight hours. Forecast soundings show this run of the
models has enough dry air at the surface in the early morning
hours Thursday to limit drizzle or showery activity so have left
it out.

Beat

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday Night...

A gradual recovery from the cooler than average temperatures will be
in store for the extended, and we should be well above normal by
Monday, so much that we could be within 3 to 5 degrees from the
record highs.

Upper level trof will begin to form over the Baja Peninsula on
Thursday with upper level flow starting to shift out of the
southwest, bringing warmer air to the Panhandles.  That will
progress over the Panhandles as an open wave on Friday.  Surface low
expected to set up southwest of the Panhandles, with a pseudo-dryline
setup to the east. That low will eject east by mid day and some
wrap around low level moisture will be in place across the
northern Panhandles. This low level moisture may include some
patchy drizzle in the southeast Panhandles for early Friday
morning. Cold front is expected to enter the Panhandles on Friday
evening from the north. The timing of this front looks to line up
with the forcing from the shortwave and thus an increased chance
for showers and storms. Right now it`s mainly across the northern
Panhandles. ML CAPE values range from 500-1000 J/kg, so we would
be looking at strong to maybe a severe potential. Earlier guidance
suggested that this would be uncapped, but latest guidance
suggests it may need more forcing to go with it. Thus NBM
struggled to give us pops. But given the pattern and several other
CONS models suggesting something across the northern Panhandle,
felt the need to introduce pops (Tstorms) for Friday afternoon and
evening.

Front will move through Friday night into Saturday, but it will
quickly exit east and be replaced by warm westerly flow, and thus
highs will be about the same in the south (mid 70s) on Saturday as
they were on Friday, and even warmer in the north.

Sunday and Monday...Large scale trof will amplify across the western
CONUS, this will increase warm southwest flow over the area and
temperatures will move into the 80s, to possibly lower 90s.  In
addition very dry air will be in place, with breezy winds.  We`ll
continue to watch as these may be elevated to critical Fire Weather
days.  We still need to keep an eye on the fuels as overall, most
areas have been showing a green up trend.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                27  56  35  65  45 /   0   0   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  26  56  35  60  42 /   0   0  10  10  10
Boise City OK              25  55  31  69  36 /   0   0   5   0   5
Borger TX                  30  60  39  67  47 /   0   0   5   0   5
Boys Ranch TX              26  60  35  73  43 /   0   0   5   0   0
Canyon TX                  26  57  34  68  44 /   0   0   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               31  55  38  56  46 /   0   0   0   5   5
Dalhart TX                 23  57  30  70  36 /   0   0   5   0   0
Guymon OK                  27  57  34  67  41 /   0   0   5   5   5
Hereford TX                25  58  33  72  43 /   0   0   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                28  58  37  57  44 /   0   0   5  10  10
Pampa TX                   28  56  36  59  44 /   0   0   5   5   5
Shamrock TX                30  57  38  54  45 /   0   0   5  10   5
Wellington TX              30  57  38  55  46 /   0   0   0  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday
     for the following zones: Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...
     Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...
     Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Collingsworth...Donley...
     Wheeler.

OK...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Wednesday
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

16/89



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