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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180310 AAC
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1010 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Have updated to include more of the area in the wind advisory.
Cold front is really packing a punch as it moves southward across
the area. Strongest winds look to be across the central and
eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle
through the early morning hours. Believe that winds may decrease
some...especially to the west and south through the early morning
hours, but the far northeast may need the wind advisory to be
extended in time, will watch latest trends to decide.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 902 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018/

UPDATE...
Have gone ahead and re-issued the wind advisory for Beaver county.
Cold front moving southeast out of Kansas has some advisory level
winds with it. Believe it will only affect Beaver county and only
until about 2 am.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 613 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018/

AVIATION...
Southwest winds will switch around to the northwest and north
behind a cold front overnight. Winds will tend to decrease some
behind this front at DHT and AMA, but they will stay up at GUY
overnight. Winds will briefly pick up again after sunrise at
DHT and AMA, but will decrease again by afternoon. Skies are
expected to remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Focus of this forecast package is on the short term. See Fire
Weather Section Below.

Strong winds are expected to continue into the late evening
hours. The advertised cold front also remains on schedule to move
across the area this evening. Winds may increase quickly as the
initial wind shift move through before winds steadily decrease
through the overnight hours. Cooler temperatures are expected on
Wednesday as winds continue to diminish.

Models have backed off slightly over the past few days on
potential on Thursday. Best chances are contained to the Friday
timeframe. Significant differences remain in the track of the
upper low which will have significant impacts on the duration of
chances into the weekend. The furthest north track has also showed
a continual decrease in forecast instability so our chance for
thunder remain on a gradual decline. Behind this system, fairly
quiet weather is expected for the start of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Strongest winds remain across the northwestern Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles this afternoon. A quick increase in winds can be
expected as the cloud cover thins/moves southeastward. Also seeing
negative dew points across eastern NM moving towards the westward
portions of the Panhandles this afternoon. Kenton, OK has already
dropped to positive 1 while a few locations across the southern
Texas Panhandle have dropped to the single digits. Also, a surface
trough is starting to move into the northwester portion of the
combined Panhandles as winds are taking on a more westerly
component of the wind. This westward trend of the winds is
expected across the area as we move into the late afternoon/early
evening hours.

A cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles late this
evening from NW to SE. The front should start to enter the NW
Oklahoma Panhandle between 7-8 PM, stretch from roughly Vega to
Beaver around 9-10 PM, and be southeast of the Panhandles by
Midnight to 1 AM. This front will be reaching the southeastern
portion of the Texas Panhandle as west-southwest winds ahead of
the front will be decreasing. Once the wind shift out of the north
occurs, expected a quick increase in winds. As the front continues
to march southeastward winds will slowly decrease throughout the
night. The dry post-frontal airmass won`t supply much relative
humidity recovery overnight as most of the area will remain below
50%.

Winds continue to drop off throughout the day on Wednesday as the
post-frontal airmass settles in. This will offset the lowest
relative humidity. As such, elevated and critical fire weather
conditions are not expected on Wednesday.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...
     Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for the following zones:
     Hansford...Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...Roberts.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for the following zones:
     Beaver...Texas.


&&

$$

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