


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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751 FXUS64 KAMA 280528 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A slight break Saturday before thunderstorms chances return for the holiday week with best chances present Sunday and Monday. Below normal temperatures also continue due to the active weather pattern in place. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 For another night showers and thunderstorms look to be present across the Panhandles with latest radar and satellite seeing weak surface and outflow boundaries take advantage of the residual moisture from the monsoonal set up. However, these chances are going to slowly fade as models continue to see the set up break down into a more zonal upper-level flow for Saturday and Sunday. This flow will see the higher moisture content that has been present all week start to wane and push back east, What will need to be monitored, however, is how quick of an exit this moisture actually makes as it could still spur on some storms tomorrow afternoon. At this time, the present NBM is not too thrill with the idea, but the latest CAM analysis does tried to start a couple isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Given this potential, have added a little extra to the POPs, but still left them 20% or less. Meanwhile, chances of precipitation look to return once again as we move into Sunday afternoon, with multiple models seeing the first of many short- wave disturbances move into the Panhandles. At this time latest guidance is giving us a roughly 30 to 50% chance of seeing precipitation, with some of the moisture retreating back and giving us PWAT values around 1.25 to 1.4 inches. However, the severe potential is still a little questionable as many of the CAMs do show MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg but little to no wind shear to keep it organized. Regardless, slightly warmer temperatures do look to follow as we see the Panhandles warm into the low to mid 90s for the weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A more stagnate pattern looks to form as we move into the holiday week with models seeing a new upper-level high build over the Southern United States. However, this stagnate upper-level flow does not necessarily mean that we cant see precipitation with many models seeing a series of short-wave troughs move across the mid-levels of the atmosphere. These troughs will help provide enough instability to create 15 to 35% chances of showers and thunderstorms clear into Independence Day. Of course these chances will also come with the threat of severe weather. However, the expected atmospheric set may see chances being similar to what we saw this week, which was high CAPE values that can create quick pop-up storms but no wind shear to keep it organized or sustained. Regardless these chances will aid in keeping temperature down under this stagnate pattern with afternoon highs staying in the 80s to low 90s clear into the holiday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Mainly VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening across the panhandles. These chances are not high enough to be reflected in any of the TAFs. High moisture will allow any storm that does form to produce heavy rainfall that can lead to localized IFR or worse conditions. Outside of these storms winds will be weakly gusty from the south to southwest. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...98