Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 212324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
624 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period.
Although not mentioned in the forecast at this time, an early
morning thunderstorm is possible at KDHT likely after 06Z Tuesday
as weather moves east from New Mexico. Will update forecast for
next TAF issuance with better confidence. Otherwise, sct low and
mid clouds should continue across the region throughout the entire
TAF period. Cigs should remain at VFR levels throughout. Winds
will pick up as we go past 18Z from 5-10 kts in the morning hours
to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts toward the end of the TAF



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018/

A southwest flow aloft will continue through much of this week. Then
a ridge is expected to build over the Rockies by late this week into
the weekend. Therefore, the flow aloft will transition from
southwest to northwest.

The western half of the Panhandles will be generally favored for
showers and thunderstorms under the southwest flow aloft since any
mountain convection has a long way to go to make into the Panhandles
before we loose the instability from the daytime heating. When we
transition to a northwest flow aloft, then more of the area may see
showers and thunderstorms as the convection initiation point
(ie...Raton Mesa) will be closer to the region.

Now with that said, that does not account for the occasional outflow
boundary or MCV which could help set off convection on the opposite
side from the expected initiation point.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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