Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 240500 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1200 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Have done a quick update to the forecast as moderate to heavy rain
continues across the central and portions of the southern
Panhandles. Update focuses on increased POPS and QPF values
overnight. Several outflow boundary`s continue across the
southern Panhandles and may trigger new storms.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 558 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact all three
TAF sites until around 04Z to 06Z Thursday with MVFR to IFR
conditions in and near the stronger storms. Southeast to south
winds 10 to 20 knots will prevail at all three TAF sites, however
winds will be stronger and erratic in and near any thunderstorms.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/


Noteworthy items continue to include the strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm chances today through tomorrow night. Then we head into
a hot Memorial Day weekend with above normal high temperatures (10-
15+ above normal) approaching triple digits across the
Panhandles...but perhaps closer to ~100-105 in the Canyon Sat and
Sun. Our primary climate sites will be approaching record
territory. See Climate section below for current forecast and
records. Signs indicate rain chances now for Sun and Monday. This
was hinted at 24 hours ago and seems now confidence is higher in
this result as the previous indicated in the overnight forecast
package. With any outdoor holiday weekend activities these
thunderstorm chances should be monitored closely.

Today is similar to yesterday in the sense we don`t have strong
forcing at the surface in association to any boundaries. Its all
driven by a combination of convective temperatures along an axis of
high theta-e, and a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) from overnight
convection. The MCV could be seen on visible satellite earlier this
morning. Dewpoints are well into the 50s and lower 60s across the
Panhandles. Forecast sounds depict a moist atmosphere with skinny
cape (especially western Panhandles) and a weak wind field through
the column. Widespread severe weather seems less likely, but surely
a strong to marginally severe storm should develop with wind being
the main threat. It doesn`t appear the atmosphere will be capable of
maintaining a strong updraft for any large hail to form but quarters
(or slightly larger) are not out of the question. Forecast soundings
and hodographs suggest storms should go multi-cellular and into
linear segments if not a squall. There could be efficient rain
producers as forecast soundings are indicating precipitable water
values approaching values near to above daily maximum values based
on sounding climatology from Amarillo. Most of the Panhandles could
receive rainfall if the linear segment can maintain itself

In the wake of the precipitation, we should have a lull tomorrow
morning as the atmosphere will have been worked over. Should have
enough destabilization occur tomorrow afternoon along another axis
of high theta-e and convective temperatures. One difference with
tomorrow is there is actually signs of a surface boundary as a dry
line finally infiltrates far enough east over the forecast area with
dewpoints in the 30s/40s across the west and 50s/60s to the east.
The gradient wont develop until late afternoon/early evening, and by
then the dryline will start to retreat west shortly thereafter. That
being said, the timing of dryline interaction with peak heating and
destabilization will be key for tomorrows severity on
thunderstorms. Currently strong to marginally severe storms are
certainly possible.

By Friday, ridging begins to develop in the upper levels and should
continue through at least Saturday. As an upper level low moves into
the Great Basin area, the ridge will begin to break down Sunday, and
we will have chances for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.This will
all depend on the transition of the upper level low into the Great
Basin area and the break down of the ridge aloft.

The other big story is the hot temperatures Saturday and Sunday as
high pressure parks itself over the forecast area. Near record
temperatures will be possible with most of the Panhandles will be
near triple digits. Any people going to the Canyon for the holiday
weekend should be prepared for temperatures around 100-105. Average
temperatures for the end of May are around the lower 80s. See
records below.



Records and current forecast for Saturday and Sunday over Memorial
Day weekend.

May 26th:

Amarillo.........100 set in 1953 (Current forecast - 98)
Dalhart..........102 set in 2006 (Current forecast - 96)
Borger...........101 set in 1953 (Current forecast - 100)

May 27th:

Amarillo.........99  set in 1945 (Current forecast - 95)
Dalhart..........97  set in 2006 (Current forecast - 95)
Borger...........100 set in 2013 (Current forecast - 98)



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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