


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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424 FXUS64 KAMA 121122 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 622 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 The risk for flooding still remains across the Panhandles for the overnight hours. Very heavy rain may occur with any rain shower or thunderstorms that can cause flooding. Daily thunderstorm chances for the next 7 days expected to potentially compound flooding concerns. A low end severe thunderstorm risk may continue as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Latest CAM analysis continues to see present showers and thunderstorms persist through the overnight hours. Currently, latest runs of the HRRR and NAMnest have been accurate in seeing storm congeal into a line late tonight with the some interaction of the present boundary stalled to our north. This boundary alongside a rear inflow jet is then expected to force showers and embedded thunderstorms to slowly progress southeast across the Panhandles clear through sunrise. While this congealment may reduce the risk of severe weather, it does open us to a night time flooding threat, especially with most model in agreement to high rises in moisture over the overnight hours. If the present CAM are correct then it is possible to seen these values jump above 1.5 inch before sunrise Saturday with some our east counties potentially nearing 1.8 to 1.9 inch values. At this time the recent 00Z sounding has shown that present PWAT values are already above 1.25 inches. However, present observations are already seeing good southeasterly flow being shown at the lower levels, which could easily support more moisture being fed in from the gulf an get us to the projected values. Should we get these PWAT values and keep storm developing then it would very easy to to see heavy to torrential rainfall across the Panhandles that could quickly lead into night time flooding. Of course we also need to consider the speed and movement of the our present rear inflow jet and how it will interact with other outflow boundaries. These interactions could potentially localize the higher rainfall totals or potentially stall the boundary allowing for continuous rainfall through Saturday morning. Unfortunately models are are struggling with these interaction, with present radar seeing much of the activity start a lot early than initially suggested. Regardless the exit of trough to our north Saturday afternoon should force the inflow jet further into the area which will also bring drier air into the area as well. While we may still see continued chances under this shift, most guidance is expecting them to stay mostly in the southern and eastern counties for both Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Added to this activity will also be a slight cool down of temperatures for the Panhandles with both Saturday and Sunday seeing highs in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Progressing into a new week has model agreement hold the Panhandles under a dual high pressure pattern in the upper-levels. While this pattern will keep our steering flow rather weak, it does allow for moisture to still seep in from the gulf. The expected presence of this moisture will aid in allowing us to opportunity to see active weather present clear past the middle of the coming week with current guidance seeing 20 to 40% chances of precipitation present through a majority of the afternoons. Of course these chance will have to be watch as we get closer for severe potential each day. However, flooding may also stay a concern as multiple rounds of precipitation and the already high soil moisture may see Panhandles more prone to flooding, especially if high PWAT values stick around. Otherwise model do expect temperatures to slightly rebound form the weekend activity with high slowly return to upper 80s to low 90s by Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A weather system has passed across the panhandles this morning and is mostly departed. However this is still causing a few rain showers and thunderstorms that are not expected to impact any terminal. With all the rainfall that occurred with this weather system low level clouds of MVFR levels are forming this morning which may impact all terminals. These low level clouds will lift after sunrise with VFR conditions for the rest of the day. There is a very low chance for further rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Even if these manage to form they are not expected to impact any terminal at this time. Going into tonight there is a low chance that all the prior rainfall will allow for either further low cloud deck or fog but this remain too uncertain to reflect in the TAFs. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Very high to extremely high moisture is moving across the southern plains including the panhandles. This will allow all rain showers and thunderstorms to produce heavy to torrential rainfall. Such rainfall can lead to flooding especially in areas with poor drainage, prone to flooding, or areas the concentrate water like Palo Duro Canyon. The heavy rainfall still most likely to occur during the overnight hours which will make any nocturnal flooding harder to detect. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ001>020-317. OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ001>003. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...98