Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
611 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions expected through entire 00Z period. Winds will
start out between E and NE at 10-15 kts and will become light and
variable between 2Z and 4Z. By 15Z winds will become southerly
10-15 kts. There may be a few high level clouds but skies should
be mostly clear especially after 15Z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/

Upper low continues to exit to the east over the Mississippi
Valley, lingering low clouds today kept high temperatures about 6
to 10 degrees cooler than anticipated. But cloud breaks finally
look like they are happening across the Panhandles, and there
might be a quick warmup into the 60s for some areas before sunset.

Northwest flow will prevail with a bit of a warm up on Monday.
Most areas will be in the 70s. There is some lingering moisture
left over and a subtle wave that could provide a shower or
thunderstorms across the northern Panhandle Monday evening. Some
of the high resolution models are trying to generate a shower or
thunderstorm that moves across the Dalhart area and either
diminish as it moves toward the central Panhandle, or has it
linger to the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle.

Cold front to arrive Tuesday morning with some post frontal
precipitation in the afternoon and evening. Right now looks to be
mainly rain showers due to a saturated sounding, however elevated
instability will be possible in conjunction with dynamic lift,
and thusly have kept a slight chance thunderstorm mention, as
there is still a stout cap to overcome.

The moisture from Tuesday`s frontal system will linger and be
focused across the eastern Panhandles through Wednesday mid
afternoon. The area will then be under a somewhat dry northwest
flow as high pressure amplifies over the Rockies.

Models continue to diverge at this point, where one solution will
keep the Panhandles warm and dry through the weekend and the other
solution will continue to bring chances of thunderstorms to the
Panhandles. Right now Thursday night has minimal chances of
thunderstorms. Keeping an eye on the Panhandles Friday through
Sunday, as strong to maybe severe storms could be possible. To
early to tell at this point, and again we still have another model
solution with dry northwest flow over the area for the weekend,
meaning no chances of thunderstorms.

Temperatures for the forecast period: Highs in the 70s tomorrow,
mid 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday (frontal passage early in the day),
60s on Wednesday, upper 60s to lower 70s on Thursday and Friday,
and mid 70s on Saturday.


Still hanging on to areas of MVFR cigs with highest coverage
extending along a line from KAMA to KDHT. East of that line,
ceilings begin to scatter out more as they are augmented by
passing gravity waves. VFR conditions are expected to become
dominant area-wide by mid to late afternoon. Winds will gradually
veer from northerly to southerly overnight and remain around 10
knots or less. Given the light winds and relatively moist surface,
can`t rule out some very patchy shallow radiation fog Monday
morning. Confidence that this fog will develop is not high at this
time, thus keeping out of TAFs.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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