Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 191657

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1157 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

18Z TAF Cycle

Some MVFR to VFR ceilings can be expected through 00Z to 03Z
Tuesday and then VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF
sites through 18Z Tuesday. North to northwest winds 20 to 35 knots
with gusts to 35 and 40 knots will diminish after 00Z to 03Z
Tuesday to around 10 to 20 knots and then becoming northwest to
west and southwest 5 to 15 knots after 05Z to 08Z Tuesday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 626 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Winds
will be rather strong out of the west at 25-35 kts with gusts over
45 kts at times as the cold front is making its way through the
region. Winds will rather be strong throughout most of the day
until we get past 00Z Tuesday where winds will diminish to
sustained around 10-15 kts out of the north to the end of the TAF
period. Winds will then further diminish to near light and
variable toward the end of the TAF period as a surface high
pressure works south into the region with clearing skies.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/

Upper level low over northwest Oklahoma will continue to move east
away from the Panhandles today.  A cold front is moving southward in
its wake across the region. Strong winds in the wind advisory
category are expected behind this front through about noon, so will
continue with the current advisory. Have also added a few rain
showers to the northeast part of our CWA to account for any wrap-
around precip that may make into our area on the back side of this

A northwest flow aloft will be found across the Panhandles on
Tuesday behind this departing storm system.  Surface winds will be
much lighter on Tuesday as well.

An upper level ridge will slowly build across the Plains Wednesday
through Thursday and then a southwest flow will return on Friday
ahead of another trough moving into the western U.S. The Panhandles
will remain under this southwest flow through the end of the
forecast. Winds will remain under 15 miles an hour on Thursday, but
will increase for Friday and then decrease again some for Saturday
and Sunday as a couple of weak cold fronts move by.

Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday through the end of the

Have gone ahead and canceled the Red Flag Warning early as
relative humidity values have risen to around 30 percent or
greater. But will replace it with a fire danger statement for
elevated fire weather conditions across the western Oklahoma
Panhandle and the western and south central Texas Panhandle.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible
on Friday as winds increase and relative humidity values fall.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Saturday and
Sunday as relative humidity values remain low. However, winds will
be lighter than Friday.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf

OK...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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