Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 110526

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 AM EST Sun Mar 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.



NE Gale-force winds are present, from 11N to 14N between 70W and
77W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela, in the coastal waters of
Colombia, with sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet. The
gale-force wind conditions will last for 12 hours or so, ending in
the morning.


The 36-hour forecast consists of: a cold front from 30N83W to
25N89W to 22N98W to 19N96W. Expect NW to N gale-force winds, and
sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 22N to 24N W of


The 48-hour forecast consists of: a cold front from 31N76W to
26N80W. Expect SW-to-W gale-force winds and sea heights ranging
from 9 feet to 11 feet, N of 29N within 90 NM E of the front.

Please read the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC, for
more details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to
01N34W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 10N southward between 09W and 34W, and from
10N southward between 52W and 60W. Rainshowers are possible from
05N southward between 34W and 52W.



An upper level trough is moving into the SE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is along 26N80W 25N85W 24N89W.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 22N to 26N between 77W in the Bahamas and 84W in NW Cuba.
Rainshowers are possible also in the Atlantic Ocean, from 22N
northward between 70W and 80W.

A complex of thunderstorms will exit the SE Gulf this
morning. A cold front will move off the Texas coast this
afternoon, then move SE across the entire basin through Monday,
and across the Straits of Florida on Monday evening. A brief gale
is expected behind the front in the far W Gulf on Monday, then SW
gulf late on Monday. Strong northerly winds elsewhere, in the
wake of the front, will diminish from the NW through Monday
night. A ridge will extend from NE Texas to the Straits of Florida
on Tuesday, and shift NE from Wednesday through Thursday.


Broad surface cyclonic wind flow is present in the Caribbean Sea.
An inverted trough in the surface pressure analysis runs from
18N75W off the coast of SW Haiti, to 11N76W.

The SW-most part of an Atlantic Ocean stationary front reaches NW
Haiti. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent
in satellite imagery.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 10/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
Montego Bay in Jamaica.

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue across the waters east
of 80W, except minimal gale force early this morning off the NW
coast of Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela. A cold front will enter
the Yucatan channel and far NW Caribbean late on Monday, reach
from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Tuesday, stall from
Hispaniola to Nicaragua Tuesday night, and dissipate by Thursday.


A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N49W to
24N63W. A stationary front continues from 24N63W to NW Haiti.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the north of the line
that passes through 32N36W, to 26N50W, to 23N60W, to 22N80W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean dissipating cold front is now inland,
passing through Morocco into the Western Sahara. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean between
the two frontal boundaries. One 1024 mb high pressure center is
near 29N31W. A second 1024 mb high pressure center is near 26N48W.
A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N69W.

The stationary front from 24N65W to Haiti will weaken through
early today. Remnants of the front will lift northward this
afternoon and tonight, ahead of another cold front that will
emerge off the NE Florida coast late tonight. This cold front will
extend from near 31N75W to northwest Cuba on Monday night, stall
from 27N65W to central Cuba on Tuesday night, and gradually
weaken through Thursday as high pressure builds eastward over the
area. Gale force winds are expected N of 29N just E of this front
on Monday night and Tuesday.

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