Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 170535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 02N31W to 00N37W.
No significant convection is noted at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure and generally fair weather prevails across the
basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered in the northern Gulf
near 27N92W. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW Gulf, and 5-7 ft in the
SE part of the region.

The high will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through
Wed. Southerly return flow will increase in the western Gulf Tue
and Wed as the ridge shifts east. A weak cold front will reach
the northern Gulf Thu, then stall and dissipate Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front is across the NW Caribbean from
central Cuba to northern Honduras. Some showers are noted near
the front, but are steadily diminishing in intensity and areal
extent tonight. A surface trough west of the Lesser Antilles and
diffluent flow aloft from an upper trough is enhancing clouds
and showers in the Windward Islands. Media sources on Martinique
reported small hail Monday in scattered thunderstorms from this
disturbance.

The front will slowly weaken then dissipate through Tue night,
with fresh northerly winds NW of the front. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds will continue across most of the basin the next
few days. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse each night off
the coast of northern Colombia with seas to 9 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N71W across
the Bahamas to central Cuba. Widely scattered showers are noted
within 180 nm east of the front. Fresh northerly winds prevail
west of the front, with seas generally 6 to 10 ft. A broad area
of high pressure extends across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N55W. The ridge is
supporting light winds north of 25N, and moderate to fresh
trades south of 25N. NE swell of 7-8 ft is located south of 20N
and E of 55W.

The front will slowly weaken then dissipate through Wed. Winds
behind the cold front will diminish Tue and Wed as high pressure
shifts into the western Atlantic. The mid-Atlantic ridge will
shift east later today ahead of a reinforcing cold front that
will move into the central Atlantic. This front will slide east
of 35W Wed, producing a large area of NW swell with wave heights
of 8-15 ft covering a large portion of the area north of 20N and
east of 45W Wed and Thu.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell



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