269
AXNT20 KNHC 261710
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 22N,
moving west 10-15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W, south
of 21N, moving westward 10-15 kt. Convection described in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W, south
of 21N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate
convection, likely enhanced by the Colombian/Panamanian Low and
the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from
the coast of Panama north to 12N west of 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and
continues southwestward to 09N47W. The ITCZ extends from 09N47W
to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection
is present from 07N to 13N and between 22W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough located inland over Texas and Louisiana
continues to support scattered moderate convection across the NW
Gulf, north of 27N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, weak surface
troughs are in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Surface ridging
prevails, providing light to gentle E Winds and seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will remain in place
across the basin through Tue night allowing for gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night
off NW Yucatan over the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above.

Recent scatterometer data depicts ongoing fresh to strong trades
in the central Caribbean. Seas have built to 6-8 ft in this area
of wind. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft
seas.

Weather conditions continue to support the potential for heavy
rainfall over the southwest Caribbean, including western Panama
and Costa Rica today through Sat, and over eastern Nicaragua and
northeast Honduras Sat into Sun. This rain could be significant,
causing flooding and possible mudslides. Please refer to your
local and national meteorological agency for details.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will build over the eastern
Caribbean through Sun, following a tropical wave that will move
through the western Caribbean. This pattern will support fresh to
strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean
into the middle of next week. Expect fresh E to SE winds and
building seas over the northwest Caribbean early in the week
following the tropical wave, with locally strong winds and rough
seas across the Gulf of Honduras Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough located beneath a broad upper level low near the
central Bahamas is supporting clusters of showers and
thunderstorms from 24N to 29N between 68W and 78W. The remainder
of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a classic summer
Bermuda-Azores high centered along 31N. This morning`s satellite
scatterometer data shows light to gentle trades. Seas are 4-6 ft
across the open Atlantic, and less than 4 ft west of the Bahamas
and in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters through Sat,
then will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off the
Carolina coast. The front will stall of northeast Florida Sun,
then dissipate Mon. The pattern will support fresh to strong E
winds off Hispaniola through Sun, and gentle to moderate breezes
elsewhere into Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase
northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Tue associated with an
approaching tropical wave.

$$
Mahoney