538
AXNT20 KNHC 202322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue May 20 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, to the south of 15N,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ,
particularly from 03N to 06N between 20W and 30W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 09N13W
and extends southwestward to near 07N18W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N18W to 06N26W. It resumes W of the tropical wave near
02N29W to 00N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from the
equator to 06N between 30W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters supporting moderate to fresh
SE to S winds W of 86W with seas of 4 to 6 ft, and gentle to
moderate SE to S winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft E of 86W. Some
cloudiness is noted over the NW Gulf ahead of a cold front that
is approaching the coast of Texas. The front is helping to induce
convection over NE Mexico. Light smoke is seen on visible satellite
imagery over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge combined with lower pressures over
central Texas and Mexico will maintain moderate winds across the
basin ahead of a cold front. The weak cold front will move into
the northern Gulf tonight, stall, then lift north and dissipate
through Wed night. Another weak front will sink into the NE Gulf
Thu through Thu night then dissipate. High pressure is expected
to move into the NE Gulf this coming weekend and dominate the
basin. Winds may freshen in the western Gulf starting Sat night.
E winds will pulse fresh to locally strong along and just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the
period as a trough develops daily and drifts westward at night.
Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will continue
to maintain hazy sky conditions across the western Gulf through
the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak high pressure is centered just E of the Bahamas. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and the Colombia low
is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the
east and central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds
across the NW Caribbean, except in the Gulf of Honduras where
moderate to fresh E to SE are observed per scatterometer data.
Seas are mainly in the 4 to 6 ft range, except in the Gulf of
Honduras where seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted, and in the lee of
Cuba where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are occurring over northern Colombia and NW Venezuela.
A few thunderstorms are flared-up over the Greater Antilles. Shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted elsewhere.

Of note: Casablanca Weather Station in Havana sets new May Temperature
Record. On Tue afternoon, the weather station recorded a maximum
temperature of 38.0 degrees Celsius, setting a new record for the
month of May. This surpasses the previous record of 37.3 degrees
Celsius, which was set on May 19, 2024. Abundant sunshine and S winds
helped the temperature to rise.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the central Caribbean
will gradually strengthen and pulse to fresh to strong tonight
through the upcoming weekend when they will spread to Nicaragua.
Seas will build to rough as a result. Winds will pulse to fresh
to strong near the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Moderate
trades in the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic will
freshen by the end of the week into the weekend. Seas will build
locally to rough in the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1017 mb is located NE of the Bahamas near
25N72W. A frontal trough extends from near 31N63W to 29N70W. A
wide band of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the trough
affecting most of the waters N of 25N between 55W and 70W. High
pressure located SE of the Azores near 34N31W dominates the
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Gentle to moderate
winds are over the waters W of 60W, with a moderate anticyclonic
flow prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range W of
60W, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough from near 31N63W
to 28.5N69W will shift moderate to fresh winds ahead of it. A
pair of frontal troughs may move across the northern waters later
in the week and upcoming weekend. Otherwise, high pressure east
of the Central Bahamas supports gentle to moderate winds. The
gradient south of 22N will strengthen by the end of the week
allowing freshening winds there. Slight to moderate seas will
prevail, lowest near the Bahamas, and locally to rough at times
near 31N.

$$
GR