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046
AXNT20 KNHC 221717
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Africa
near 01N15W, and continues to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from
02N122W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
75 nm on either side of the boundaries mainly west of 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf waters extending from
30N94W to 26N97W. To the east, a 1011 mb low is centered near
30N92W, with surface trough extending from the low to 26N95W. S-SW
winds in the 20-25 kt range are noted ahead of the front per
buoys observations. A warm front extends across the northeast
Gulf from 30N89W to 27N82W. Scattered showers are noted over the
northeastern portion of the basin mainly north of 27N and east of
90W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are noted north of the warm
front and it is forecast to lift northward moving inland later
today. Expect for the cold front to reach from the Mississippi
Delta to the Bay of Campeche tonight, from the Florida Big Bend to
the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night, then slow somewhat on Tue
passing across the Straits of Florida Tue night. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds will follow the front today with building seas of
4-5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are then expected in the wake of
the front tonight and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
trades across the south-central Caribbean and along the southern
coast of Hispaniola through early this afternoon. Strong
nocturnal trades are then expected to resume tonight along the
north coast of the South America. A weakening cold front will move
southeastward across the Yucatan Basin by Tuesday night, and wash
out across the northwest Caribbean by mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N56W, then
continues to near 27N63W where it becomes stationary through
27N80W. The stationary front is expected to lift northward today
with near-gale force southeast flow developing across the
forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Monday, in association
with a surface low that will move eastward across the southeastern
United States. Presently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
rapidly developing along and near the stationary front west of
about 60W, as a rather broad mid to upper-level trough over the
western Atlantic provides additional instability in the vicinity
of this frontal boundary. This convective activity is affecting
the NW Bahamas and south-central Florida, and is expected to
continue through this afternoon, before it lifts to the northwest
part of the area tonight through Mon in response to a warm frontal
boundary that develops there ahead of a Gulf of Mexico`s cold
front. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a
1030 mb high pressure located southwest of the Azores near
35N35W. A 1010 mb low pressure situated northeast of the Madeira
Islands near 33N11W and is generating some showers and tstms
activity.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA