Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150005

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


An upper-level low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near
26N85W. Divergent upper-level winds on the E side of the low have
induced the formation of a broad area of weak surface low pres
over the eastern Gulf. Specifically, a surface trough extends SW
from N of Tampa near 29N83W to low pres 1012 mb near 27N84W to
low pres 1012 mb near 25N85W to 22N86W. A large area of scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is currently present over
Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas within an area bounded by 31N84W to
20N85W to 24N75W to 31N80W to 31N84W. Although this system could
still acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics while
it crawls N across the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days, the low has not shown signs of increased organization during
the past 24 hours. Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation, this system will produce locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding across portions of Florida and the
southeastern United States during the next few days.


The monsoon trough heads SW from coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 02N30W to
02N39W to the Mouth of the Amazon on the coast of Brazil near
00N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 05N
between 11W and 18W and from 02N to 05N between 43W and 51W.



A broad low pressure system will linger over the eastern Gulf and
produce heavy rainfall and will be the main weather producer over
the eastern Gulf the next few days. Moderate to fresh winds are
present on the NW side of the low. Please see the special features
section for more details on this system. High pressure over the
southern United States ridges SW over the W half of the Gulf and
is inhibiting convection there. The trough is expected to form
over the Yucatan Peninsula this evening and move offshore tonight
over the Bay of Campeche bringing with it a return of fresh winds.
This pattern will continue to repeat itself through this week.
Otherwise, little change is expected over the western Gulf over
the next few days.


Convergent upper-level winds associated with troughing over the
basin near 80W and over the Antilles is restricting convection.
This relatively dry weather pattern is expected to continue for
the next couple of days. High pressure over the Atlantic is
helping to produce moderate trade winds over the northern
Caribbean, and mainly fresh trade winds over the southern
Caribbean. Winds over the southern Caribbean near the coast of
Colombia will pulse to strong at night the next few nights,
expanding to include the south central coast of Hispaniola by


Deep layer low pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
is supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
over the central and NW Bahamas and the Florida offshore waters
generally W of 75W. See the special feature section for more
details. A broad area of high pressure centered near the Azores
ridges WSW to near 32N77W. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressure associated with the Gulf of Mexico
trough/low supports fresh SE winds over the central and NW Bahamas
and nearby waters. Gentle to moderate winds cover the Atlantic
between 27N and 31N. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the
Atlantic S of 27N.

The high pressure ridge will maintain these winds through Thu,
except with winds increasing over the Bahamas and E of north
Florida to fresh to strong tonight. Also, winds N of Hispaniola
will pulse from fresh to strong from afternoon to late evening
each day through Sat. The area of strong winds N of Hispaniola
will expand northward to as far as 23N by Sat as the high pressure
ridge over the western Atlantic gradually strengthens and low
pressure over northern South America deepens slightly.

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