Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to 01N25W
01N38W, and to the Equator along 50W near the coast of Brazil.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers,
in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, FL to 24N78W where it
becomes stationary to the central Bay of Campeche. A few tstms are
along the frontal boundary between 85W and 89W, and also near
23N88W. Gentle to moderate northerly flow follows the front with
seas of 2-4 ft. The cold front will move across south Florida and
the SE Gulf this evening, also affecting the Yucatan peninsula and
the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front is forecast to move across
western Cuba and southeast of the area on Wed. The cold front
could support some shower and tstm activity over western Cuba and
the Yucatan penindula on Wed. Weak high pres will once again
build across the gulf region behind the front producing a light to
gentle anticlyclonic flow, and seas generally of 3 ft or less.

The current cold front will reach the SE Gulf on Wednesday, where
it will stall. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday night. This front will shift across the Gulf
waters, moving SE of the area on Sunday.




CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from 23N63W in the Atlantic Ocean,
across Puerto Rico, into the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, from 22N in the Atlantic Ocean southward between 60W and
70W, and from 11N to 15N from 70W westward in the Caribbean Sea.
Afternoon rainshowers are in the Dominican Republic, and in the
Atlantic Ocean coastal areas and NW parts of Cuba.

Numerous strong rainshowers are in northern sections of Colombia
and NW parts of Venezuela, and in eastern Panama near the border
with Colombia. Cyclonic wind flow. with an upper level inverted
trough, spans the area from Venezuela to Colombia to Panama.

The wind speeds will pulse to fresh-to-strong in the central
Caribbean Sea during the overnight hours. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N48W to 29N52W. The front becomes
stationary at 29N52W, and it continues to 26N62W 28N70W, and to
32N76W. The frontal boundary eventually connects itself to a 1008
mb low pressure center that is in NW South Carolina. A cold front
extends from the South Carolina low pressure center, through
32N78W, continuing just to the NW of Lake Okeechobee in South
Florida, to 24N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 24N northward
from 68W westward. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N
northward between 45W and 56W. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 24N northward from 45W westward.

The current cold front, from South Carolina to Florida, will
reach from 31N70W to the straits of Florida on Thursday, where it
will stall and dissipate. A second cold front will move into the
NW waters on Friday night. This front will reach from near 31N72W
to the straits of Florida on Saturday night, and from 31N66W to W
Cuba on Sunday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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