Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 150506

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.


Broad mid to upper-level low pressure is centered over the NE
Gulf of Mexico near 27N85W. The surface reflection of this system
manifests as weak surface low pres centered over the eastern Gulf
near 26N85W. A surface trough extends SW from N of Tampa near
28.5N82.5W through the low to 23N86W. Areal coverage and intensity
of the convection associated with this system have both decreased
during the past 6 hours. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is confined to areas along the Florida E cast from 25N
to 30N between 78W and 81W and over the Gulf of Mexico S of the
Florida Panhandle from 28N to 30N between 84W and 87W. Although
this system still has the potential to acquire some subtropical or
tropical characteristics as it drifts N or NNW across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low is not
exhibiting signs of increased organization. Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will
produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across
portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during the
next few days.


The monsoon trough heads SW from coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N31W
to 03N37W to the Mouth of the Amazon on the coast of Brazil near
00N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed from 07N to 15N between 11W and 18W and from 02N to 05N
between 43W and 52W.



A broad low pressure system will linger over the eastern Gulf and
produce heavy rainfall. This system will be the main weather
producer over the eastern Gulf during the next few days.
Satellite-derived winds indicate moderate to fresh winds in the
vicinity of the low over the eastern Gulf. Please see the special
features section for more details on this system. High pressure
measuring 1014 mb is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N93W. The
high ridges SSW over the Bay of Campeche. Convergent winds on the
E side of an upper-level ridge there are inhibiting convection. A
surface trough extending over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala
from 21N87W to 16N90W will move offshore tonight over the Bay of
Campeche and bring fresh winds with it but no significant
convection. This pattern will continue to repeat itself over the
SW Gulf through this week. Otherwise, relatively quiet weather is
expected to continue over the western Gulf over the next few days.


Convergent upper-level winds associated with troughing over the
basin near 80W and over the Antilles is restricting convection.
This relatively dry weather pattern is expected to continue for
the next couple of days. High pressure over the Atlantic is
helping to produce moderate trade winds over the NW Caribbean,
and mainly fresh trade winds over the remainder of the basin.
Winds over the southern Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will
pulse to strong at night during the next few nights, expanding to
include the south central coast of Hispaniola by Thu.


Deep layer low pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
is supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
along the Florida E coast. See the special feature section for
more details. A large high pressure system centered near the
Azores ridges WSW to the S Carolina coast. The pressure gradient
between the high and lower pressure associated with the Gulf of
Mexico trough/low supports fresh SE winds over the central and NW
Bahamas and nearby waters. Winds are expected to pulse to strong
off the coast of N Florida from 27N to 30N between 78W and 80W
today, then decrease tonight. Otherwise, winds will be moderate over
the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ between 30W and 45W and
moderate to fresh over the tropical Atlantic between the Windward
Islands and 45W during the next couple of days.

Winds N of Hispaniola will pulse from fresh to strong from
afternoon to late evening each day through Sat. The area of strong
winds N of Hispaniola will expand northward to as far as 23N by
Sat as the high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic gradually
strengthens and low pressure over northern South America deepens

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