Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 161703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR next 24 hours. Breezy conditions will see a bit of a respite
overnight before ramping up on Tuesday. LLWS is expected overnight
as southerly flow increases above a modest inversion.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/

Fire weather will dominate the early part of the week. It may seem
difficult to believe, but convection chances may manifest
themselves for the second half of the week.

An upper level ridge axis will shift overhead today while a
deepening upper level trough moves on shore in the Pacific
northwest. We will begin to see surface lee troughing/cyclogenesis
today in advance of that system. This system`s effect on the
region will peak on Tuesday as it moves out onto the Plains. The
belt of strongest winds on Tuesday will extend from north-central
New Mexico into eastern Colorado. However, respectable 700mb winds
of about 40-45kt will stream overhead. The height gradients at
700mb are not quite supportive of high winds on Tuesday
afternoon. Extreme subsidence and mixing within the corridor of
strongest 700mb winds may allow winds to come close to high wind
criteria especially across the extreme southwestern Texas
Panhandle. A cold front early Wednesday will quickly relax the
winds. This front will become a major player in the second half of
the week.

Models are now depicting this front falling short of the Texas
gulf coast which may boost return moisture availability on
Thursday and Friday. We will undergo short wave ridging aloft on
Thursday as moisture attempts to return in advance of another
trough coming on shore in the Pacific northwest. At the moment,
this system looks to drop far enough south into the four corners
region to provide the South Plains with a good chance at severe
dryline convection on Thursday and especially Friday. Details are
always sketchy this far out but CIPS analog guidance indicates
strong chances for severe convection over West Texas.

Another period of critical to extremely critical fire weather
conditions will occur today and on Tuesday afternoon. A strong
upper level storm system moving across the Rockies today and
Plains on Tuesday will bring strong winds. This will boost
temperatures to values on the order of 10 to 15 degrees above
seasonal averages. Childress and Cottle Counties were upgraded to
a Red Flag Warning given forecast RFTI values of 2-3 with forecast
ERC values above the 75th percentile. Minimum relative humidity
values between 5 and 10 percent today will drop even further for
Tuesday with values at or below 5 percent. An extremely critical
day will likely unfold on Tuesday with widespread RFTI values
around 7-8 for much of the region.


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>044.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to midnight CDT Tuesday
night for TXZ021>044.



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