Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 231720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Few storms have developed along TX/NM border, and some models have
these making a run for KLBB and KPVW later this evening. However,
confidence in these making it that far east or timing has kept TAF
mention out of this run. Cigs may bounce between VFR/MVFR at KLBB
and KPVW this afternoon due to low-level moisture streaming in,
but the prevailing should stay at or above VFR. Expect amendments
should storms develop.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

A minor update to the forecast was sent out reflecting the current
trends in convection over the South Plains and extreme southern
Texas Panhandle. Some thunderstorms continue to develop along an
outflow boundary currently located along I-27. This activity will
likely dissipate within the next few hours but storms may likely
persist after 12Z as far south as Lubbock County.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

Prospects may be slightly better for measurable precipitation over
a larger area today but may be the best chances we have over the
next week or so.

A subtle short wave was moving through the weak southwest flow
aloft which may contribute to these slightly better chances for
this afternoon and evening. Chances would definitely be better if
we can get storm initiation closer to West Texas this afternoon.
Otherwise, weak forcing will prevail today. A low level theta-e
axis will be a touch closer to the area today which will give rise
to low end severe chances this afternoon and evening. The severe
chances will mostly come from strong instability on the order or
2000-2500 J/kg near the Texas/New Mexico state line by late
afternoon with little to no capping. Continued weak flow aloft
will inhibit a more widespread severe threat. CIPS analog guidance
also shows a stronger severe chances in eastern New Mexico rather
than West Texas.

An upper low that has been meandering around the Great Basin will
move out into the northern Rockies today along with a
strengthening but narrow upper level ridge building overhead. This
will develop a pseudo omega block with an upper level low around
the Great Basin and another over the southeastern US. As the
previous shift mentioned, a lack of mid level moisture and general
subsidence will likely keep PoP chances low late this week into
the early weekend. An increase in thicknesses beginning today will
max out temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. With rainfall looking
more spotty we could see temperatures near or exceeding 100
degrees over a widespread area this weekend as MOS has been
advertising. The aforementioned upper level ridge will begin to
break down early next week. Stronger jet level winds will move
overhead as the deep upper level low over the Great Basin meanders
eastward. This could give rise to dryline storms around Sunday
through Tuesday next week.




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