Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 211936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
236 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

An area of upper level difluence over NM is shown well on WV imagery
as an upper low slowly pushes southeastward across central CA. This
upper diffluence will aide in convective development across the
mountains of NM this afternoon. This convection, currently beginning
to develop as of noon CDT, will only slowly push eastward as
steering flow is weak. There is a decent chance of the convection
moving into the FA by the evening into the overnight hours. How far
east the convection will push is uncertain, but it should mostly be
limited to the I27/US87 corridor and westward. Overall the threat
for severe convection is low as wind shear will be weak (0-6 km 25
kt or less on average). A somewhat similar scenario is expected
tomorrow with the main differences being that the upper low should
open and be absorbed into the main upper flow and shear will be even
weaker. Convection initiation could occur closer to home if there
are residual boundaries left across the FA from tonight`s possible
convection. Otherwise storm chances will be mostly confined to the
western portions of the FA and dependent upon convection moving
eastward from NM. Wednesday will be even less predictable as there
is no organized surface boundary to initiate lift (i.e. dryline).
Lift will depend mostly on any remnant convective boundaries along
with weaknesses moving across the upper ridge.

A subtropical ridge is progged to develop along the Rockies late
this week into the weekend. This would place the region under
northwesterly flow allowing for some thunderstorm chances mainly
during the evening and overnight hours. This will depend on the
placement of the ridge. The GFS is trying to build the ridge farther
eastward with the axis over eastern NM which would limit storm
chances for the FA.




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