Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 130554
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1154 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Red Flag Warning and High Wind Warning have been allowed to
expire as wind speeds have decreased and relative humidity values
begin to rise across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...Strong winds and much colder conditions expected Friday...

Currently...Wind speeds have stayed slightly less than forecast so
far this afternoon, as persistent high level cloudiness has
slowed thermal mixing somewhat, especially in the Pueblo area. Still
think windiest period has yet to occur, as latest obs have begun to
gust over 50 kts at Canon City, 46 kts at Trinidad, 47 knots at
Alamosa, and mesoscale models show 50 kt gust potential until around
01z. Red flag warning certainly verifying area-wide as humidity has
fallen to near/below 10 percent at many locations.

Tonight...Winds will diminish this evening as mixing subsides,
though still breezy through midnight as surface pressure gradient
remains rather tight with low pressure over nw KS. After midnight,
snow increases along the Continental Divide as upper low approaches,
with occasional periods of moderate wind driven snow over higher west
facing slopes in the Central mountains developing and persisting
through the day on Fri. Farther east, cold front races south through
the plains, reaching the NM border by sunrise, with very strong N-NW
winds quickly following the frontal passage. Winds should keep
eastern mountain slopes and plains rather mild, while mountains and
interior valleys see mins well below freezing as cold air aloft
moves southeastward across the area.

Friday...Models have been fairly consistent showing a band of
rain/snow developing along/just east of I-25 early in the morning,
then shifting eastward across the plains into early afternoon as
upper low moves across the state and into wrn KS. Low level temp
profiles on the plains look rather marginal for snow, though
certainly could see a change-over to brief heavy, wet, wind-driven
snow under heavier convective showers, especially over slightly
higher terrain away from the lower Arkansas River valley. Won`t
issue any winter highlight yet, but bears watching. Main story on
Friday will be strong/damaging winds, as band of 70-80 kt 700 mb
flow rotates around the departing low across the plains. Strongest
winds will be east of I-25 and north of the Arkansas River, where
some frequent gusts over 60 mph look possible. Winds will be
slightly weaker west of I-25 and across most mountains and interior
valleys, though gusts over 50 mph look likely through much of the
day. Once main band of wrap-around precip shifts into KS during
the afternoon, precip will be limited to occasional snow showers
over the higher terrain, especially north of Monarch Pass.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...Strong Northerly Winds Friday night and Saturday across Southeast
Colorado...

Friday night and Saturday...Latest models in fairly good agreement
with strong upper low across north central Kansas late Friday
afternoon slowly lifting north and east into northeastern Nebraska
through the day Saturday. Strong gradient flow progged across all of
Eastern Colorado with H7 winds between 50-65 kts Friday night slowly
decreasing from west to east through Saturday morning. This will
lead to strong and damaging northerly winds of 30 to 45 mph, with
gusts of 60 to 65 mph possible across the Plains, with the strongest
winds expected across northern and eastern portions of the Southeast
Plains. With that said, current High Wind Warning for most of the
Southeast Plains Friday night and Saturday remains in tact, though
may need to trim western portions of the warning through the day
Saturday, as winds are expected to decrease from west to east
Saturday morning and afternoon. As for precipitation, location of
the upper low will keep most of the precipitation north and east of
Southeast Colorado, though some wrap around snow showers will be
possible Friday evening, especially across the Palmer Dvd and Raton
Mesa regions, and across northern portions of the Plains, especially
Kiowa County. Could see local accumulations of up to an inch on
grassy areas, with some possible travel impacts Friday evening with
blowing snow across these areas. Further west, northwest flow
setting up behind the system will allow for some orographic snow
showers across the Central Mts Friday night, with generally light
accumulations expected on the higher peaks. CAA across the area
behind the system will lead to a chilly and blustery night, with
Friday night lows in the 20s across the plains and in the single
digits and teens across the higher terrain, with highs Saturday
below seasonal levels in the mid 40s and 50s across the lower
elevations and mainly 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

Sunday-Monday...Upper level ridging across the area Sunday gives way
to increasing southwest flow aloft across the area Monday, as a
Pacific Northwest upper trough digs into the Great Basin. Dry
weather expected across the area through the period with
temperatures warming back to seasonal levels Sunday and above
seasonal levels on Monday. Increasing flow aloft and temperatures
leads to increasing fire weather concerns on Monday.

Monday night-Thursday...Great Basin system moves across the Rockies
through the day Tuesday, leading to increasing chances of the rain
and high elevation snow across the ContDvd Tuesday, with only light
accumulations expected due to fast movement of the system. Strong
south to southwest winds across the Plains on Tuesday looks to bring
critical fire weather conditions across portions of Southeast
Colorado Tuesday afternoon, with cooler conditions and lighter
upslope winds expected behind the systems cold front on Wednesday.
Another quick moving Pacific system looks to move into the Great
Basin Thursday, bringing increased winds across the area Thursday
with increasing chances of precipitation to the ContDvd Thursday
night and Friday, with models also hinting at possible convection
across the far Southeast Plains Thursday afternoon. Time will
tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Behind a cold front advancing south across the region, winds this
evening will be out of the north at 10-15 knots sometimes gusting
to 25 knots at all three TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, KPUB). During the
mid to late morning hours on Friday, rain to snow showers will
develop in the vicinity of the three sites. Winds will increase
throughout the morning to 25-35 knots gusting to around 45 knots
by the early afternoon. Strong, gusty winds will persist into the
Friday evening hours. VFR conditions are most likely at all three
TAF sites for the next 24 hours, though conditions may approach
MVFR levels at times tonight and tomorrow night with lowering
ceilings.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 9 AM Friday to 6 PM MDT Saturday for
COZ084>086-089-093>099.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LINE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LINE



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