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000
FXUS65 KTWC 240349
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
849 PM MST Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue into the upcoming holiday
weekend and likely through the end of the month. Gusty winds will
return again this weekend as a couple of low pressure systems move
north of the area. Afternoon highs will warm above seasonal
normals later this week before cooling a few degrees over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The large scale synoptic pattern that includes a
mean trough position through much of the west and a persistent
southwesterly flow for our area continues. It`s a dry pattern for
our area with temperatures fluctuating between near and above
average as a series of lows reinforce the trough to our northwest.
The main story will continue to be gusty afternoons whenever one
of the lows dig deeper into the region, with the next one due
Saturday. Please see the previous discussion below for details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/06Z.
Clear skies. Surface wind diminishing to under 10 kts overnight,
then increasing again out of W-SW after 24/17z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Lighter winds through Friday, though still some
afternoon breezes around 15 mph each afternoon. Another low
pressure system will approach our area this weekend bringing
another round of breezy/windy conditions on Saturday, with
critical fire weather conditions possible across portions of the
area. Some breezes will continue Sunday and Monday, though not
quite as strong as Saturday. Generally seasonable temperatures
through the weekend with a more significant warming trend next
week. No precipitation expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Abundant sunshine across southeast Arizona
with afternoon temperatures at or slightly below normal. Clear
tonight with overnight lows right around normal, like they have
been for over a week now, which is rather nice.

Warmer next two days as upper ridge builds over eastern Arizona
and New Mexico while another upper level trof moves into the west
coast. A few low desert locals may hit 100 on Friday. Gusty winds
return to the area on Friday but more so on Saturday associated
with the upper level trof moving inland. Highs returning to near
normal this weekend.

Upper ridge building over the area next week with a bit more areal
coverage of the lower deserts being in triple digits, including
Tucson, to end the month.

Looking further south the models are showing an increase in
monsoonal moisture across southern portions of the Mexican states
of Durango and Sinaloa over the next week. Its that time of the
year.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Meyer

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