Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 162121
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 PM MST Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system moving north of the area will bring gusty
winds with patchy blowing dust today into Tuesday. Brief cooling
Tuesday followed by warmer temperatures Wednesday. Gusty winds and
patchy blowing dust will return Thursday into Friday as an even
stronger system moves through the state. Cooler temperatures behind
this system Friday, then less wind and a warming trend next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A high energy pattern across the CONUS with a ridge
just east of the area now, sandwiched between a strong system
near the west coast and another near the midwest and New England.
For our area, southerly to southwesterly winds are increasing this
afternoon as the west coast system pushes inland. Generally breezy
conditions, but enough for critical fire weather concerns as
outlined below in the fire weather section. Some patchy mid and
high cloud, but dry below that. Surface dew points in the single
digits (on both sides of the zero line), and the 12Z KTWC sounding
showing under 1/5 of an inch precipitable water.

Gusty winds still a concern in eastern areas tomorrow, with
critical fire weather conditions expected. A fragmented frontal
boundary will try to push through tomorrow, and timing will help
determine daytime highs as western areas see the cooler air first
while eastern areas continue to warm under the afternoon sun. 10
to 15 degrees cooler behind the front.

A quick ridge will bring several degrees of warming for mid week
before a deeper system pushes through the region Thursday and
Friday. Moisture will be limited with a few light showers
possible near the mountains, but windy conditions will bring more
dust and fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon. Warm and dry
for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/00Z.
BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through 10Z then becoming SCT AOA 20K
ft AGL. SFC wind swly/wly at 15-25 kts with gusts to near 35 kts
until 17/03Z then slowly diminishing aft 17/03Z to 5-15 kts. Wind
becoming wly 10-20 kts with local gusts to 30 kts Tuesday afternoon,
especially east of KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of
southeast Arizona until until 8 pm MST. Another Red Flag Warning is
in effect Tuesday from 10 am MST until 7 pm MST for much of zones
152 & 153 as well as the southeast corner of 151, basically south
and east of Sonoita.

The storm system currently over the area will continue to move east
through Tuesday. Strong winds will ease up this evening then
resurface across eastern zones Tuesday along with single digit RH
levels.

Wednesday will be a relatively quiet day with much lighter winds
with the typical spring afternoon gustiness, but continued very low
humidity levels, with mins 7% or less.

A strong storm system will affect Arizona Thursday into Friday. This
system looks to be nearly as strong as last Thursday and is expected
to result in critical fire weather conditions across all of
southeast Arizona Thursday and then across the eastern zones Friday.
Single digit minimum RH values are expected most areas Thursday and
in the 10-20% range on Friday.

Saturday through Monday should be quiet with light winds and
humidity levels closer to average for mid-April.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ150>153.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ151>153.

&&

$$

Meyer/Cerniglia

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