Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 220952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
251 AM MST Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions through the upcoming holiday weekend.
Gusty winds will occur today and should return again this weekend as
a couple of low pressure systems move north of the area. High
temperatures will warm above seasonal normals later this week and
continue into the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...An upper low centered over southern Nevada early this
morning will bring another round of gusty winds today. The strongest
wind speeds will be along the Rim into the White Mountains where a
Red Flag Warning remains in effect from Noon to 7 PM MST today.
Refer to the fire weather section for more details. Models showed
this upper low weakening as it tracks through the northern Rockies
on Wednesday. Thereafter, a ridge of high pressure aloft builds over
the eastern one-half of the state Wednesday into Friday. This ridge
will result in a warming trend, with high temperatures peaking about
8 to 10 degrees above normal on Friday. The high pressure ridge will
shift east of the area this weekend as another low pressure system
enters the Great Basin region. This weekend system will be another
dry one for southeast Arizona, with breezy to windy conditions
returning as early as Saturday.


.AVIATION...Valid through 23/12Z.
Clear skies into Wednesday morning. Surface wind variable in
direction mainly less than 12 kts early this morning, then surface
wind sly/swly 12-22 kts with gusts near 35 kts from about 22/16z to
23/03z before diminishing. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 7 PM
MST today for the northern portions of Fire Weather Zone 153; or,
more specifically for the Alpine District. The combination of strong
and gusty south to southwest winds, low relative humidity, and a
very high fire danger will create critical fire conditions.

Otherwise, dry conditions will continue into early next week.
Although gusty southwest winds will occur this afternoon elsewhere
across southeast Arizona, wind speeds are not expected to meet Red
Flag criteria. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph
Wednesday through Friday. Gusty afternoon winds should return this
weekend into early next week as another low pressure system moves
north of the area.


  Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ153.



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