Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 172111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
211 PM MST Wed May 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and breezy this afternoon with clear skies. Winds
decrease slightly Friday and into the weekend before restrengthening
early next week. Slight cooling Friday, then temperatures hover near
to just above normal through the forecast period.


.DISCUSSION...West to southwest gusty winds this afternoon with a
very dry airmass in place as surface dewpoints are mostly in the
single digits. Latest Visible/WV satellite imagery shows clear skies
across the region with southwesterly flow aloft as a compact upper
low continues to move east across eastern Nevada. A weak shortwave
trough axis will move through the area tonight into Friday morning
which will lower height and thickness values across the area and
knock back high temperatures Friday about 5 degrees compared to
today. There will still be some breezes mainly east of Tucson Friday
afternoon but remaining below critical thresholds for fire weather

A seasonable weekend in store with dry westerly flow continuing and
temperatures near normal for this time of year. We`ve been watching
a back door cold front progged to push west across New Mexico on
Sunday with the ECMWF consistently being the farthest west with its
push of moisture into Arizona compared to the GFS/CMC. The latest
12Z ECMWF now keeps the deeper moisture to our east across New
Mexico, but this is something we`ll continue to watch. For now, just
expect a few build-ups Monday afternoon across the Whites and
Chiricahuas. Meanwhile, an upper level trough and associated upper
low will dig into California Monday and move east across the Great
Basin Tuesday resulting in a tighter pressure gradient with
increased afternoon breezes starting Monday with highs near normal
for early to mid next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 19/00Z
CLR skies through the forecast period. Surface winds W-SW 10-20 kts
with higher gusts into this evening, then diminishing to less than
10 kts after 18/04z. W-SW winds will increase again to 10-20 kts
again after 18/18z. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.


.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue across
southeast Arizona into the middle of next week. A weather system
passing by to the north is resulting in gusty winds this afternoon.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for fire weather zone 153
(northern Greenlee and Graham counties) and for the mountain ranges
above 5000 feet of zone 151 and 152 (Pima, Santa Cruz, Graham and
Cochise counties) until 7 PM. Less wind on Friday, though still
breezy east of Tucson. Another dry and breezy system is expected to
affect the area early to the middle part of next week.


Red Flag Warning through 7 PM MST today for AZZ151, AZZ152, AZZ153.




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