284
FXUS65 KBOU 150553
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1153 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and drier Wednesday.

- Locally critical fire weather conditions over the plains
  Thursday afternoon.

- Next system moves in Friday with much colder temperatures and
  snow for most locations.

- Hard freeze likely Friday night and into Saturday morning with
  lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Satellite and RAP analysis products show today`s shortwave
continuing to push eastward, with only a few lingering showers
across the plains left on radar.

Wednesday should be warmer and drier across the forecast area as
weak zonal flow develops behind the departing trough. Mid-level
temperatures should warm several degC and forecast highs return to
the 60s across most of the plains. A little bit of moisture is
expected to linger across the high country leading to a bit more
cloud cover there, with mostly sunny skies across the plains.

Thursday will likely be the warmest day of the work week this
week, with southwesterly flow aloft increasing ahead of our next
(stronger) trough axis. Temperatures are expected to warm up into
the mid to upper 70s across most of the plains... and combined
with low relative humidity values... another day of widespread
elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible. See
the Fire Wx section below for additional details.

The focus of the forecast period continues to be Thursday night
through Friday night, as a strong trough axis swings across the
region. Tonight`s guidance hasn`t changed significantly with the
synoptic scale details of this event, with the trough axis
quickly pushing across the state during the day Friday. A rather
strong cold front looks like it will push into the plains late
Thursday night or sometime Friday morning, with 700mb temperatures
dropping to as cold as -8 to -11C by Friday afternoon. While the
trough is rather quick to move across the region, there would
still be a narrow period (<12 hours) of favorable upslope and QG
ascent to work with during the day Friday. Unsurprisingly,
ensemble guidance strongly favors a modest (around 0.15-0.4") QPF
forecast which would lead to generally light snow amounts across
most of the Front Range and I-25 corridor. We`ll continue to watch
trends closely here as we get into the range of the HRRR/RRFS and
other CAMs. A cold overnight is likely on Friday night with a hard
freeze expected across most of the lower elevations.

We may be slow to warm on Saturday, but there`s good agreement in
a broad ridge developing across the western CONUS by later in the
weekend or early next week. Highs should climb to above normal
values by Sunday and continue through early/mid-week next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions will persist. The last of the mid level cloud deck
with ceilings 6,000-10,000 feet will be moving off to the southeast
through 08Z. Then only FEW-SCT clouds 10,000 feet or higher through
the rest of the TAF period. Winds are settling to normal SW now and
will hold through about 14Z, and then trend more W-NW 15Z-20Z and
speeds should stay generally under 12 kts. KBJC, however, will
likely (60% chance) see some mountain wave enhanced gusts to around
25 kts anytime from 09Z-18Z. Winds should then hold fairly
persistent from the W-NW through 01Z Thursday, only to slowly relax
again and become normal S-SW drainage winds by 03Z-05Z Thursday.
Overall, there is higher than normal confidence with those wind
trends, although can`t totally rule out (20% chance) of brief
disruptions in the expected wind progression.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Dry, southwesterly flow aloft is expected to develop on Thursday
ahead of Friday`s storm system... leading to widespread elevated
to critical fire weather conditions across the forecast area. Good
agreement across Tuesday afternoon`s guidance and from most of the
available 00z guidance tonight that we`ll see humidity drop to
critical thresholds across most of the lower elevations, with some
models advertising single digit RH values Thursday afternoon. The
bigger question is how much wind will develop across the lower
elevations Thursday afternoon. The NBM appears to be far too
aggressive with gusts, and even after adjusting down our forecast
wind grids are about 5-10 mph stronger than some higher resolution
guidance. With mid-level (700mb) flow around 20-25kt, it seems
reasonable to expect at least a few hours of >25 mph gusts. Given
that the flow is predominantly SW/WSW, much of the I-25/I-76
corridors may be partially sheltered.

While many locations in the plains may see critical fire weather
conditions, GEFS Hot Dry Windy Index plumes suggest higher
confidence of approaching/exceeding the 90th percentile of the
HDWI across South Park into Lincoln county, with far more spread
along and north of I-70/I-76. For those reasons, we`ve opted for a
relatively small Fire Weather Watch from South Park into the
Palmer Divide and adjacent plains for Thursday, though it`s
possible the day shift will need to make additional refinements
after evaluating the full suite of Wednesday`s 12z guidance.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ214-216-241-245>247-249.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...20
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris