Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 252222
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
322 PM MST Thu Feb 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM MST Thu Feb 25 2021

With the upper level trough pushing out of the state and increasing
subsidence and drying moving in snow has come to an end. Clouds will
decrease leaving mostly clear conditions overnight and temperatures
dropping into the teens across the lower elevations. With the
clearing skies and snow cover dropped temperatures just a few
degrees below guidance. Flow aloft increases by the evening hours
with an increasing mountain top stable layer. Although it is offset
slightly it will be enough to bring some of the higher winds down
into the foothills late this evening and into the overnight hours.
Areas could see blowing snow with the increased winds this evening
and overnight.

For Friday, the next shortwave will push into the northern mountains
bringing another round of light orographic snow to the high country.
There is not a lot of moisture associated with this feature so do
not expect much in the way of additional accumulation. The flow
aloft will then turn more zonal with the majority of the region in
the left entrance region of the upper jet. Model cross sections show
component along winds increasing up to 60 kts by 12z Friday. The
stable layer will fall apart helping to bring more of the winds down
to lower foothills and eastern plains during the morning hours with
the helped of continued QG subsidence. Wind prone areas of the
mountains could see some gusting up to 60 mph at times with
considerable blowing snow that could reduce visibility over the
higher passes during the day. For the lower elevations model
continue to show winds in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusting up to
40 mph by the afternoon. This could also cause some blowing snow
concerns, especially over wind prone highways such as 93 between
Boulder and Golden. Temperatures for Friday will be closer to
seasonal normals with highs in the lower 40s for most areas and
teens and 20s in the mountains. The winds of course will reduce that
with apparent temperatures in the 20s and single digits for the
mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM MST Thu Feb 25 2021

A short wave trough will scoot across Colorado late Friday
night/early Saturday with some light snow for the mountains and a
puff of northwest winds for the plains. Current forecast has this
covered well. Cool and drier air moves in behind this for Sunday.
We`ll be under a shortwave ridge for the early part of next week.
Warming aloft would likely support highs in the 50s on the plains,
but there may still be some snow left around Denver to hold us
back a little bit. With the melting we`re already seeing today
though, this may not be much of a factor by then. The models
remain divergent on the next trough developing somewhere over the
west early next week. If it ejects in just the right spot we could
get a widespread snow out of it, but it`s more likely to be in the
wrong place or a more transitory wave as it comes over. Without
really knowing which day or where, low PoPs for the mountains
starting Tuesday is all we`ll have for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 322 PM MST Thu Feb 25 2021

VFR conditions are expected at area airports through the remainder
of the TAF period. Winds will have the biggest operational impact
this period with west winds increasing at area airports around 15z
with some gusting up to 35kt possible after 16z. Winds will decrease
to below 30kts after 23z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Bowen



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