Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 312130
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
330 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Moderate westerly flow aloft has been generating areas of mountain
wave cloudiness, both over the mountains and out onto the plains.
Temperatures have warmed nicely, and breezy conditions have
been confined to the 25 to 30 MPH range. Decreasing winds are
expected by evening as surface de-couple from the flow aloft.

Wednesday will be mostly dry and a few degrees warmer as west-
southwesterly flow aloft continues across the state. By afternoon,
moisture aloft will begin increasing over the mountains as a weak
weather disturbance approaches from the northwest. Light snow will
begin to develop by evening over the mountains. Sensible weather
on the plains will wait until later tomorrow night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020

Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft is progged
Wednesday night for the forecast area. At that time, there is a
pretty decent upper trough northwest of Colorado over the northern
Rockies. On Thursday, that west-southwesterly flow aloft
increases as the trough nears us. The bottom of that upper trough
moves across the CWA Friday morning, with 70-90 knot zonal jet
level flow in place Friday afternoon and night. There is weak
upward vertical velocity progged for the CWA Wednesday night well
into Thursday night. Subsidence is progged on Friday with neutral
forcing Friday night. The approaching upper trough helps drag a
cold front into the CWA, with upslope flow behind it, Wednesday
evening. The low level wind and pressure fields keep
northeasterly upslope low level flow over the plains and foothills
all day Thursday and much of Thursday night. Southeasterlies are
progged on Friday with normal drainage patterns Friday night.
Moisture increases in the lower levels of the plains Wednesday
night. Moisture gets fairly deep over much of the CWA Thursday and
Thursday evening. Then moisture decreases into Friday before
increasing again Friday afternoon. There is some minor CAPE
around Wednesday evening, then again late day Thursday. There is
a bit of measurable precipitation on the QPF fields Wednesday
night, mainly over the northwestern half of the CWA. There is
better coverage by Thursday afternoon and evening for much of the
CWA, although amounts are not substantial. There is a tiny bit of
measurable precipitation in the high country on Friday. The
forecast soundings show it cold enough for snow by 12Z Thursday
morning for the plains. There could be some rain over the
southern half of the plains Thursday afternoon, then all snow
Thursday evening. For temperatures, Thursday`s highs should be
about 9-18 C colder than Wednesday`s highs. Fairly significant!
Friday`s highs will be a tad colder than Thursday`s. For the later
days, Saturday through Tuesday, models have southwesterly flow
aloft for us through Tuesday. The moisture is not great, maybe
enough for a few late day showers mainly in the alpine areas.
Temperatures will be above seasonal normals Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 330 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2020

No aviation impact through tonight and Wednesday morning as
ceilings and visibilities remain unrestricted. Winds will be
generally out of the south overnight and southwesterly tomorrow.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dankers
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Dankers


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