Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 242136
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
336 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

A persistent wave cloud is over the northern foothills with
continued subsidence beneath a 586 DM ridge over the region.
Dewpoints across the region range from the mid 30s to lower 40 with
gusty westerly winds with downsloping conditions. Slightly lighter
NE winds south of Denver will bring enough upslope enhancement to
keep a slight chance of storms for the late afternoon hours. Mid
level steering flow will push storms to the ENE into the early
afternoon hours. Dewpoints are slightly better eastward across areas
of Elbert and Lincoln county with model soundings nearly dry
adiabatic. This help to keep lapse rates high and will aid in
sustaining some cells. The main hazard from these storms will be
some light rain or virga with gusting up to 30 mph at times.
Conditions overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the lower
50s.

For Tuesday, the ridge continues to build over the region with
models showing a weak shortwave embedded in the flow aloft. Moisture
is lacking in the mid levels with model soundings continuing to show
dry low levels. Higher chances exist over the mountains for some
afternoon convection with diurnal heating with storms moving over
the lower elevations by the afternoon. These storms will bring
similar impacts to today with light rain and gusty winds.
Temperatures will continue the upward trend with highs into the mid
80s across the plains and 60s to 70s in the high country.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Upper ridging will moving into the CWA from the south and
southeast Tuesday night through Thursday night. The flow aloft
will be weak and west-southwesterly all five periods. The synoptic
scale energy is benign through Thursday night. The low level wind
and pressure fields show predominately south to southeasterly
winds much of the time. Moisture-wise, it is limited through the
periods. There is some in the middle and upper levels but not too
much in the lower levels. Some of the models show increased low
level moisture getting into the eastern border CWA late day
Wednesday. Better low level moisture is progged across much of the
plains late day Thursday. There is limited CAPE over the
mountains and far northeast corner Tuesday evening. There is
limited CAPE over most of the CWA late day Wednesday, with high
values over the far eastern border. Late day Thursday, the CAPE is
pretty sparse, with the exception of the northern corner where
values are fairly high. The QPF fields have a bit of measurable
rainfall over the southwestern CWA and northern border areas. Late
day Wednesday looks similar for the locations but less coverage.
There is limited QPF over a large area of the CWA late day
Thursday, but there isn`t much. Will go with some 10-30% pops in
limited areas Tuesday evening and late day Wednesday. For
temperatures, Wednesday`s highs are 1-4 C warmer than Tuesday`s
highs. Thursday`s highs are 2-4 C warmer than Wednesday`s. For
the later days, Friday through Monday, models continue to show an
upper ridge over the CWA all four days with weak west-southwesterly
flow aloft. ThE GFS does have enough moisture around through the
period for a chance of late day showers and thunderstorms each
day. Other models are not as optimistic. Temperatures will stay
above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 217 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Winds will
generally be from the WNW with some gusting up to 25 kts through
00z. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for gates to the SW
near APA but should stay outside the 5-10 NM range of area
terminals. Winds will switch to a more southerly direction with
drainage expected through the evening. Another round of diurnal
convection is possible over the mountains and SW portions of the
region by 18-20z Tuesday with some gusting possible after 20z for
DIA, APA and BJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION.....Bowen


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