Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 261822
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1122 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020

Thin high clouds should increase this afternoon, mainly over and
near the mountains, at the same time the lower clouds over the
mountains break up a bit. Today`s forecast looks good, with a
similar wind pattern to yesterday but lighter speeds. A little
west wind will spill off the mountains eventually, but most of the
Denver area will remain in a pocket of lighter winds. Forecast
highs look good.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, our paltry forecast may still be a bit
optimistic as the low level winds will struggle to get an
easterly component. For the most part it`s looking like this will
skip over Denver, but there`s still a chance of a little snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020

Last night`s weak short wave and upper level speed max brought a
little light snow to the northern mountains, with just a dusting
of it reaching as far south as the I-70 corridor. Satellite shows
this wave has passed by, but again, we`re still dealing with a
little mid level moisture trapped in the high country. This will
bring a few more light snow showers this morning before clouds
finally break a little for the afternoon and evening.

On the plains, look for another mild and dry January day with
highs pushing into the mid 50s in all areas. There will be concern
of a pesky but fairly narrow wave cloud along the Front Range,
which may impact temps a couple degrees, but the eastern plains
will certainly see plentiful sunshine. The increased heating and
mixing will bring a return of northwest breezes across the plains,
with speeds of 15-20 mph common. The I-25 Corridor may see a mix
of diurnal easterlies and a few channels of west/northwest winds
pushing off the foothills.

For tonight, moisture and lift ahead of the next upper level
trough will spread across the forecast area. Light snow is
expected to start by/shortly after midnight in the far northern
mountains, spreading to the Front Range Mountains and Summit
County toward daybreak Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020

The upcoming week will feature a pair of weather disturbances
moving over the state. The first weather system will arrive
tomorrow with snow developing in the mountains after midnight
tonight and then continuing through tomorrow. The mountains will
pick up a couple inches of snow for each 12 hour period as the
weather system is moving over. Scattered snow showers will also
continue after the upper trough passes, as the flow aloft becomes
northwesterly which will favor some orographic snow shower
development. The expected snow amounts are too light to justify
any highlights at this time. As the upper trough moves out over
northeast Colorado Monday afternoon and evening, light precipitation
is expected to spread out onto the plains. With Monday afternoon
temperatures in the lower to mid 40s, precipitation will probably
begin as rain and then change over the light snow. No snow
accumulation is expected on the plains due to the warm ground
temperatures from the past couple weeks of dry and mild weather.

The second storm system of the week will move through on Thursday.
This system is a bit trickier to forecast since models are showing
the base of this trough digging west and then south of Colorado
with the trough axis moving over forecast area. There should be
plenty of dynamic forcing with the trough to produce at least
light snow in the mountains and eventually out over part of the
plains. Mountain areas will have the highest probability of
precipitation for now. If the main part of the trough develops too
far west and south of us, then very little precipitation will
result over north central and northeast Colorado. The development
of this system will be monitored through the first half of the
week. With these two weather systems moving over the state,
temperatures will be around normal.

The end of the week and through the weekend looks like a warming
trend as a strong upper ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and
southwestern United States. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday
look like they will be well into the 60s for the first couple days
of February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020

VFR through tonight. Winds this afternoon will be light with some
variability, but mainly from the east at KDEN/KAPA. At KBJC west
winds are expected to develop, with gusts to 20 knots possible
this afternoon. Winds will go to S/W drainage this evening. MVFR
conditions are expected to develop 12z-15z Monday with a chance of
light snow showers. No accumulation is expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gimmestad
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Dankers
AVIATION...Gimmestad



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