Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240745
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
245 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

Hi-res models initiate scattered convection just to our south and
sweep it northward into portions of western Ky/southeast MO by
late afternoon. Further upstream, an open mid level wave of
energy over southern AR lifts north into MO overnight, as the mean
long wave drives a developing cold front out of the Southern
Plains eastward toward the Lower MS Valley. SEMO esp may get
caught up in some additional convection out of this energy`s lift,
according to the CAMs, while the earlier aforementioned
convective elements wane upon their further northward lift. There
is a marginal risk of rainfall exceeding FFG here (SEMO) late
tonight, as the NAEFS/ECMWF ESATs indicate strong moistening with
PW`s souping up to 1.5" plus/90th percentile, which is nearly 2
standard deviations above the norm. Particularly strong and eye
catching is the integrated vertical water vapor transport, in the
deepening SSWlies aloft, at around 4 standard deviations above
the normal or nearly off the charts with respect to percentile.

All of this sets the stage moving into Wednesday, when the parent
system is poised to make its main approach/passage. While cluster
analysis has consistently trended the peak QPF/stronger storms to
our south, across the Lower MS Valley, the models have also been
consistently hitting upon an axis of afternoon-evening
instability with 0-1KM MUCAPEs approaching 3000 J/KG across our
east. With mid level energy/winds increasing, and surface dew
points now pushing 70F at that time, this sets the stage for
potentially strong-svr storms, represented by SPC`s marginal risk
svr for Day 2. Similarly, the rainfall exceeding FFG is marginal,
with a small area of slight risk nudging from the south into far
SEMO/Jackson Purchase area of WKY. Note the MDT risk bullseye
just to the south over portions of WTN, where the antecedent soil
moisture is higher due to recent heavy rainfall there. The
steering flow will be conducive for repeat or training echoes
Wednesday, which amplifies the flooding hazard potential.

With the upper low closing, but not yet cutting off, still to our
west Thursday, pops will linger, and will likely have a night-time
wane followed by a daytime swell. Pops will taper from highest
east to lowest west, and gradually diminish in west to east
fashion with the eastward drift of the Low, which moves nearly
overhead by 12Z Friday. This ultimately draws in some cooler/drier
air, taking our 80s/60s back to the 70s/50s as it does so.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

First major question of this period is the timing of the upper
level low lifting out of the area. Cluster analysis dominated by
the GEFS suggest the lifting will be slower and scattered
showers/storms will be possible during the day on Friday and some
linger them into early Saturday. The clusters dominated by the EPS
suggest a faster lifting out of the upper level low and very
little precipitation on Friday.

Going forecast suggests mainly afternoon showers/storms over the
eastern half of the area and this seems reasonable.

Saturday has the same issue but with fewer GEFS members holding on
to the upper low over the mid-upper Ohio valley. The EPS dominated
clusters, now being joined by more GEFS members rapidly rise heights
over the lower Ohio valley. This shows a very low probability of any
rain on Saturday and will keep things dry.

Sunday has a slightly above normal ridge over the Ohio valley by
most clusters and this should hold into Monday. Although most
clusters have a relatively strong trough over the northern
Plains/northern Rockies with variations on timing and strength.

This points to a dry holiday weekend. Conditions will turn hot with
850/sfc temperatures warming 5-10 degrees per day into Monday. Highs
near 90 will be common by Monday. Decent boating weekend with winds
under 15 mph Saturday-Monday. Strongest winds will be over southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

MVFR bases are modeled to increase today, with predominant cigs
by daybreak. Some lifting of these ceilings will then occur from
the west through the midday. The CAM`s initiate convection late
in the day, moving it toward the terminals from the south, esp at
KCGI/KPAH through the evening hours. It should gradually diminish
upon its further northward advancement after nightfall, leaving
SCT-BKN VFR bases.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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