846
FXUS63 KPAH 180001
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
601 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread light to moderate rain will spread into the region
  tonight through Saturday morning.

- A powerful cold front will sweep through the region Saturday,
  bringing dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values
  Sunday through Tuesday.

- Some flurries or light snow showers are possible late Saturday
  night through Sunday morning. A dusting up to a half an inch
  of snow is possible, with the higher amounts forecast to occur
  over western Kentucky.

- Temperatures will begin to moderate for the second half of
  next week, but will remain below normal. A small chance of
  rain or snow returns to the forecast Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Tonight through Saturday night... The region is enjoying a brief
respite from the cold this afternoon as warm southerly winds
associated with high pressure to our east have pumped
temperatures into the upper 40s to uppers 50s from north to
south. Conditions will quickly change tonight as surface low
pressure passes through the Midwest, initiating widespread light
to moderate rain showers. The rain will mainly fall overnight,
through a few showers may linger into Saturday afternoon over
the southern KY Pennyrile. Rainfall amounts still look to be
modest, generally 0.25-0.50".

Saturday morning and afternoon, a powerful Arctic cold front
will sweep through the region. High temperatures will occur
during the morning hours, with values in the middle 30s to
middle 40s, followed by temperatures falling into the 20s and
30s in the afternoon. Gusty NW winds of 10-15 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph will result in afternoon and evening wind chill values
in the 10s and 20s. Low temperatures Saturday night will range
from 15 to 23 degrees from north to south, with wind chill
values in the single digits or lower 10s.

Saturday night into Sunday morning, model guidance is hinting
at weak low-level forcing and saturation, which will initiate
widespread flurries or light snow showers. There may be enough
light snow activity for minor accumulations of a dusting up to a
half an inch, with the higher totals over western Kentucky.
Think that snow will fall over a long enough period to keep any
travel impacts from developing, but will continue to monitor
closely.

Sunday through Tuesday night...The early week period still look
to have an extended period of dangerous cold temperatures and
wind chills. As Arctic high pressure settled into the region,
temperatures during the Sunday to Tuesday period will only
reach the 10s and 20s and lows will fall into the single digits
or lower 10s. Coupled with the wind, apparent temperatures
values at night of -5 to 5 degrees are likely, and during the
daytime hours they will remain in the 10s and 20s at most.

Model agreement remains good regarding the intensity and
duration of the cold. The latest NAEFS guidance strongly
supports 850 mb temperatures of -20 to -25C, which would be near
climatological minimum values even for the middle of January.
The only thing saving us from a truly extreme cold event will be
the lack of snow cover.

Wednesday through Thursday night... The temperatures will
gradually begin to moderate for the latter half of next week,
but will still remain about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Overall the pattern looks to be dry, but some guidance is
hinting at a potential clipper system that may impact the region
with light rain or snow on Thursday. Details remain murky and
will become clearer over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Showers will move into the area this evening with MVFR
conditions common and IFR possible. IFR conditions will be most
common overnight at KEVV and KOWB, where LIFR conditions will be
possible. A cold front will pass through the TAF sites from 11Z
to 14Z, and that should bring an end to the precipitation.
However, it may linger later into the morning in the northeast
and it may be cold enough for a mix of rain and snow. South
southwest winds will gust 20-25kts at times tonight ahead of
the front, and northwest winds will gust 15-20kts behind the
front Saturday. The strongest gusts on both sides of the front
will be at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DRS