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000
FXUS63 KPAH 061056
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
556 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

The main concerns in the short-term portion of the forecast are on
the potential impacts from smoke today and tonight and the next
chance for scattered showers and storms on Wednesday. Vegetation
continues to dry out across the Quad State, so a few fire starts are
possible.

Today and tonight: Very dry northeasterly flow will remain in place
across the Quad State through tonight as overall weak flow remains
in place. Much of the Quad State will remain on the inflection point
of the deeper troughing to the east and ridging to the west. High
temperatures are expected to push into the upper 80s to around 90
once again. The continued hot temperatures and lower dewpoint
combination will lead to afternoon RH values dropping into the 20 to
25 percent range across much of the area. Fortunately, the surface
flow does remain light as previously mentioned, which will help to
limit the overall fire danger; however, fuels continue to dry out
across the area with the lack of appreciable rainfall. In addition,
HRRR smoke products continue to show a smokey/hazy sky across the
area through at least this evening; therefore, have kept the mention
in the forecast and even extended into the evening hours. AQAs
continue for portion of the area, due to poor air quality. Overnight
lows are expected to be in the 60s for much of the area.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...A subtle shortwave is expected to
drop through the western edge of the aforementioned upper-level
trough over the eastern CONUS. This will help drag the trough axis
slightly farther to the west, placing much of the area in more
northwesterly flow aloft and allowing temperatures to cool to a
greater extent across all but SEMO. At the same time, a backdoor
cold front is expected to sag south/southwestward through the Quad
State. This increase chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. Not looking at a lot of rainfall or even widespread rain,
in fact, most locations will see a quarter inch or less. After the
front passes through and upper flow shifts, expect the smoke
issues to become more limited. Highs are expected to be in the
upper 80s to low 90s over SEMO, while much of the rest of the area
may cool to the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows are expected
to be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Thursday and Thursday night: The upper-level trough is expected to
drift even farther west for this time period as a stronger shortwave
passes around the western edge of the trough. Moisture looks to be
very limited with this feature, so only expecting a marginal
increase in cloud cover. Otherwise, the lower heights aloft, will
help keep temperatures cooler with deeper mixing. This will also
allow afternoon relative humidity values to drop to around 25%. It
will feel much more comfortable outside, but the vegetation will
continue to dry rapidly. This may lead to fire starts even though
winds are expected to remain light. In fact most locations will
likely be in the low to mid 80s, warmest over SEMO. Overnight lows
will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

The main forecast concerns in the long-term portion of the forecast
will be the continued dry spell across the area through most of
Saturday and then the potential for showers and storms Saturday
night through Sunday.

Friday through Sunday: Light surface flow is expected through the
day Friday as a surface high slides through the Quad State before
shifting east of the area Friday night. As the high shifts east,
expected southerly return flow to gradually increase through the day
Saturday. This will effectively allow temperatures to warm again and
allow moisture to steadily increase. By late Saturday afternoon, a
surface low is expected to gradually shift across the Plains to
north central Missouri by 12Z Sunday. This will allow a stronger
cold front to sweep through the area by Sunday afternoon. There are
some model differences in frontal boundary timing, but it does look
like much of the area will stand a good chance at seeing some much
needed rainfall.  At the same time, a trough axis is expected to
arrive by Sunday afternoon. Current thinking is that most locations
would see around a half inch of rain with a few locations seeing
close to an inch Saturday into Sunday. High temperatures are
expected to warm to the upper 80s for Saturday before cooling to the
low and mid 80s for Sunday. Overnight lows are expected to drop into
60s.

The rest of the extended: The frontal boundary is expected to shift
out of the area Sunday night into Monday. Indications point toward
an upper-level closed low to set up across much of the Ohio Valley,
keeping much of the Quad State under a troughed pattern with north
to northwest flow aloft. This would point to cooler temperatures in
the low 80s. There is enough model spread for the Sunday night
Monday time period to just stick with a blend of the models. This
brings a small chance for showers to the area, but there will likely
be changes over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

VFR flying conditions expected at each TAF site through this
forecast issuance. Smoke and haze will continue to be in place
across the entire area today, but overall impacts at the TAF sites
are expected to be minimal. Some high based CU may develop this
afternoon, but not expecting many clouds around in general. Winds
will remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KC