Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1112 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

As a weak ridge of surface high pressure, currently reflected by a
little clearing nudging into portions of the Ozarks, drifts
eastward across the Tennessee river valley, it may drag said
clearing eastward across portions of the PAH FA. A close
examination of soundings and time/height cross sections, however,
suggest the clearing may be shorter lived or less extensive than
first glance. A ripple of energy in the upper atmosphere is
expected to develop/move across the FA later tonight-tmrw, and
this should redevelop and/or respread cloud cover overtop the
region. Most models even produce a little pcpn out of this,
mainly during the afternoon/evening hours Sunday. We`ll not try to
be too fancy with this weak system, just blend the pops and
clouds as best as possible.

After that, another lobe of energy spins down the
northwesterlies/overtop the PAH FA Monday. It is more moisture
starved, so should be devoid of pcpn, but not cloud cover.

Given the clouds/pcpn and general nwly flow pattern, we can
expect a continuation of coolish temps, which are actually near
seasonal norms for late January. 20s north to 30s south for lows,
and generally 40s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

Models show a surface low moving from Texas to the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday into Tuesday night as an upper level trof slides over
the lower and middle Mississippi valley.  Most of the precipitation
with these features will affect the lower Mississippi valley, but
some light QPF will be possible across mainly southern portions of
the PAH forecast area Tuesday night.  There will be small chances of
light rain or a light rain/snow mix Tuesday evening across southeast
Missouri, southwest Illinois and far west Kentucky.  Small chances
of light rain/snow or light snow will continue late Tuesday night
across portions of southeast Missouri and west Kentucky.  Models
show the upper trof losing definition as it moves over our area, so
it is possible precipitation may stay south of our region, thus we
will keep chances in the slight category for now.  QPF amounts will
just be a trace to a couple of hundredths.

Models show weak mid/upper level ridging over our region Wednesday
into Thursday.  This will give our area dry conditions Wednesday
into Thursday night. By 12z Friday, models bring a surface low into
northwest Missouri.  As this system slowly slides east, light
rain/snow will be possible across our area early Friday morning,
becoming all rain by midday Friday.  Light rain/snow chances will
continue into Friday night and Saturday across mainly the east half
of our counties.  QPF again looks to be very minimal, with the bulk
of the moisture remaining south of our region.  Again stuck with
just slight chance pops.

The beginning of the extended will see near seasonal highs and
slightly above normal lows.  Overnight lows will remain fairly
consistent through the forecast with readings in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.  Highs will be gradually warming, with readings around 5
degrees above normal by Saturday.


Issued at 1112 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

The back edge of the mvfr cigs has almost stalled near the Wabash
River as of 05z. These low clouds are still likely to make it east
of the kevv/kowb area overnight. Elsewhere, widespread mid level
clouds will continue. Pockets of mvfr vsby will linger in se
Missouri and srn Illinois. Winds will be light.

On Sunday, clouds will again lower in most areas. MVFR cigs are
again forecast by midday in most locations, except far northern
areas such as kmvn. Winds will remain light.





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