Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 022245
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
445 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 445 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

No real forecast concerns in the near term with a quiet weather
pattern forecast to continue. An upper level low will continue to
track south of the region through tonight, resulting in just some
scattered high clouds through the early evening. Thereafter, an
expansive ridge of high pressure will set up from Ontario Province
in Canada all the way south to the Gulf Coast. This will ensure
dry conditions with mild daytime temperatures and chilly nighttime
readings. Highs through Thursday should manage to reach the upper
50s to lower 60s, with lows in the 30s through Thursday night.
Another low pressure center will dive southeast into the southern
Plains by Thursday night, resulting in an increase in high clouds.
However, any precipitation should hold just to the south and west
of the immediate forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, a closed low off
the California coast Wednesday will undercut a synoptic scale ridge
and weaken as it moves into the intermountain region and southern
Plains by Friday. The broad suite of guidance takes this low just to
the southwest of the WFO PAH forecast area on Friday, with just a
brief glancing blow of minor PoP chances in southeast Missouri (but
within the WFO PAH Fire Weather Counties).

The synoptic scale ridge will then dominate the area through early
Monday morning. There is quite a bit of model variability with the
trajectory of the next system that moves into the West Coast on
Saturday. There is a lot of latitudinal and intensity variability of
the shortwave as it moves into the central and northern Plains by
Sunday evening. Given the low forecast confidence, kept with the NBM
initialization on PoPs. A similar shortwave system moves near the
WFO PAH forecast area Monday night. For now, kept a similar PoP
scenario in place for the Monday night system as well.

The better chances for rain will return beyond this forecast period,
as a longwave trough works into the West Coast.

Utilized NBM for initialization for other sensible weather elements,
but would not be surprised if there is a slight upward tick on
temperatures during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 445 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

VFR through Wednesday. Light winds tonight. WSW winds up to 10
kts Wednesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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