Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231927
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
227 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Bubble high pressure system at the surface will build into the
region tonight, bringing cooler and less humid air with it. Under
clear skies and light winds, temps will are expected to bottom out
from near 50 to the mid 50s overnight. Tuesday should be nice as
well with near normal afternoon temps near 80 or so, and
comfortable humidity levels.

Another weak frontal system will approach and then move through
the region Wednesday/Wednesday night time frame. Once again, this
does not look like it will be a big rain-maker, especially over
the drier areas east of the MS River. Generally a quarter inch or
less is anticipated in those locations. Mid/upper level forcing
looks meager at best, and the front is expected to cross most of
the region during the night or early morning, when instability
will be at a minimum.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

The extended period begins with a cold front along or just south of
the southern CWA border Thursday morning. Kept lingering chance POPs
in this area, but conditions should dry out later in the day. At
this time, Thursday looks like a pleasant day with high in the upper
70s/lower 80s with comfortable humidity.

High pressure will retrograde westward into the area, and its
placement and strength will determine precipitation chances and
temperatures for the remainder of the period. Right now, there is
decent model agreement that the ridging will be strong enough to
prevent a cold front from clearing the area Friday into Saturday,
although it may get close enough to trigger precipitation in our
northwestern counties, while the remainder of the area is dry. Have
low chance POPs for the northwestern half of the CWA from late
Friday into Saturday.

Additionally, with strong southwesterly flow, wind gusts of 20-25
kts are possible Friday afternoon. Given ongoing dryness, especially
across western Kentucky, this may lead to fire elevated weather
conditions. Will need to monitor. Temperatures will be above normal
Friday and Saturday, in the mid to upper 80s.

Beyond Saturday, summertime heat and unseasonably gooey humidity look
to take hold. Models in decent agreement with strong ridging setting
up over the eastern half of the country. NBM gives highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday and lower 90s areawide Monday. This
could be a touch overdone when compared with other model guidance,
but, again, given how dry it has been, temperatures could outperform
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Expect 25-35 kft cigs to persist into the afternoon fora few
hours, otherwise skies will be generally clear through Tue AM. NW
winds AOB 10 kts will subside as the sun lowers this evening and
high pressure moves over the region.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DWS
AVIATION...GM


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