Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242241
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
541 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Though a few of our northern counties managed to eek out a few
sunny breaks in the clouds today, most of us were stuck with a
cloudy, dreary, brisk and chilly Fall afternoon. In addition,
most of us will most likely not be seeing the sun again through
at least the first part of the week. A slow moving weak surface
low over the southeast U.S. tonight may create enough low level
lift across our region to support more in the way of patchy,
nuisance drizzle over western KY. Otherwise, it should be a
rather quiet night with only little diurnal temperature changes.

A deep mid/upper level low pressure system will drop south into
the Four Corners region on Mon/Tue time frame, forcing flow
leading into our area to become more swly with time. With cold
surface high pressure pressing into the eastern Rockies, and an
inverted trof trying to set up over the southern Plains, it is
mow looking as though an over-running pattern will set up in
between these two systems early in the work week, with the swly
flow aloft over-riding the dome of chilly air near the surface.

Though areas of se MO and srn IL still look to be in the most
favored region to pick up significant rainfall Monday through
Tuesday, the overall amounts forecast are trending down somewhat.
Rain totals through Tuesday now appear to be limited closer to the
half to three quarter inch range, as the bigger forcing should
stay off to the southwest of us, closer to the inverted surface
trof. Much of western KY may not see much at all through the
period if current trends hold.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

An unsettled pattern will continue through Thursday night. A
strong closed low at 500 mb is expected to track northeast from
the Mexican border area into our region. This system will play a
big role in our weather Wednesday into Thursday night. At the very
least, widespread rainfall is anticipated along the path of the
upper low. Heavy rainfall and thunder potential would be a concern
if the 12z ecmwf and ecmwf ensemble mean pans out.

The period will start out dry Tuesday night in between the early
week system and the next one. Moisture will increase Wednesday as
the mid level flow backs into the southwest ahead of the 500 mb low.
Some rain may arrive, especially in the afternoon. Highs Wed will
range from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The models begin to diverge on Thursday. The gfs/gefs tend toward a
weaker and more southern track of the 500 mb low. In fact, the 12z
gfs ensemble mean indicates only a weakening open trough by the time
it reaches the lower Ohio Valley Thursday. By comparison, the ecmwf
based guidance is stronger, slower, and a little farther north with
the system. This results in a warm front passage on Thursday,
accompanied by heavier rain and convection in and near the warm
sector. The national model blend favors the gfs/gefs guidance, so
the forecast will be cooler and not as wet as the ecmwf. However,
the ecmwf solution is certainly worth watching. Of particular
interest is the developing tropical system in the Gulf, which could
contribute additional moisture.

Regardless of their differences Thursday, the models come back into
agreement for our area Friday into Saturday. They indicate dry and
cool weather in the wake of the departing low pressure system. Highs
will slowly recover into the lower 60s by Saturday as a broad 500 mb
ridge over the western states expands eastward. Lows will be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 539 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Gridded time/height cross sections suggest little/no break in the
restricted bases thru the forecast period. This is even with some
mid bases of VFR in our north/east...so will trend back to MVFR
bases/cigs for all w/time, and include some light rain or drizzle
this evening, per ongoing radar/obs. While we may see some
improving lift to bases during the planning phase of the forecast,
with a chance for return to VFR, will keep prevailing bases
restricted at this writing.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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