Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181113
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

Light rain showers continue to blossom across the region on the
nose of a 40 kt 850 mb LLJ. Model soundings show weak capping
over the region, and without a synoptic forcing mechanism present,
the shower activity will gradually diminish in coverage late this
morning and afternoon as the LLJ wanes. Can`t rule out a few
isolated lightning strikes this afternoon, but overall instability
looks meager at best. Maintained a slight chc of showers tonight
over our far northern and western zones where 300K isentropic
upglide looks a little more robust. Chances for precipitation,
concentrated during the heat of the day, will shift west as robust
H5 ridging moves east towards the forecast area. Areas generally
north and west of the Ohio River will see isolated to scattered
convection Wednesday afternoon, but by Thursday, mentionable PoPs
will be confined to the Ozark Foothills of southeast MO.

Temperatures will see a warming trend as we gradually ditch the
cloud cover and PoPs. Highs today will be in the lower to middle
70s. High temperatures Wednesday will climb into the lower
80s...followed by values in the middle 80s on Thursday. Overnight
lows will generally be in the middle 60s each night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

A fairly dry and very warm period setting up for the end of the
week, weekend and early next week. An abnormally strong (592 dm)
upper level high will be eastern KY/TN to start off the period. It
then retrogrades during the day on Friday and into Friday night,
with its center ending up just south of the CWA by 12Z Saturday. The
upper level high will continue to slowly slide westward on Saturday
and be situated over the lower Mississippi River Valley by 12Z
Sunday.

As this occurs, all the deeper moisture will be staying to our west
and north, leading to dry weather across our area. The GEFS and
ECMWF ensemble means both indicate very low probabilities of seeing
any measurable precipitation Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, there
is a small chance we could see some convection impact northeastern
parts of the area, which is on the eastern fringes of the upper
high. The latest ensemble data hints at slightly higher
precipitation probabilities in these areas, but not enough to
warrant any mentionable rain chances. Since, consensus on this
signal is not exactly high right now, will leave the forecast dry,
but it is something to keep an eye on with future model runs. The
upper high pretty much meanders remains nearly stationary over the
region clear on through into Monday as well, so the quiet weather
should continue.

Strong southerly to southwesterly flow in the lower levels will mean
continued warm weather for Friday and into the weekend with above
normal high temperatures. Mid to upper 80s look commonplace for
Friday into the weekend and even into early next week. The latest
GFS/ECMWF probabilities of temperatures reaching 90 degrees and
above, indicate that chances are very low we will see readings that
high. However, looking at the NBM max temperature probabilities, the
chances of hitting 90 degrees or above does seem to increase as we
head into Sunday and Monday. Given the strength of the upper high
that will be upon us, will edge numbers closer to the 90 degree
mark. Lows will drop down into the lower to mid 60s each night. The
one thing that will be lacking to make it truly feel like summer, is
humidity. Dew points are only expected to make it into the upper 50s
to lower 60s. So while it will be noticeably humid, it will not
be oppressive.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

Scattered to widespread showers will continue to move from south
to north across the region, especially from this morning through
early afternoon. The highest coverage will be near and west of the
Mississippi River, so KCGI, KPAH, and KMVN will be most impacted
by lower cigs, showers, and periods of fog. Cigs and vsbys will be
low VFR to MVFR through mid to late afternoon at these terminals
before improving to VFR early this evening as the rain departs.
Brief vsby reductions to IFR are possible under the heavier
showers. Shower coverage will be lesser near KEVV and KOWB, with
periods of light showers or only VCSH respectively.

Winds will be E-SE today, sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts up to
18-22 kts at times, with the exception of KOWB. The gustiness
will decrease after 0z Wednesday, with sustained winds around 8-11
kts.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
SHORT TERM...DWS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DWS


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