Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Currently...Dry west to southwest flow aloft was keeping the region
clear, with temps as of 4 am cooling into the 50s o lower 60s for
the plains, 40s for the high valleys and 30s for the mts.

Today and tonight...

Colorado will remain under west to southwest flow aloft through
tonight, as the state finds itself between high pressure aloft to
the south and southeast, and an approaching low pressure trough to
the northwest. This upper trough will cross the Pacific NW and
northern Rockies today and tonight, drawing moisture up across the
Great Basin and into western CO. Isolated showers develop along the
Continental Divide, and especially the central mts, after midnight
tonight, and gradually spread eastward through the early morning
hours of Monday. Today is expected to be the warmest day of the
entire 7 day forecast, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 F for
the high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Recent computer simulations/tendencies have a weakening trend for
the projected incoming systems during the Monday into Wednesday
time-frame and have adjusted forecast grids to account for this

Above seasonal temperatures are still projected Monday in
combination with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity as
as a relatively weak upper disturbance and weak north-
northeasterly surge impacts the area. The highest potential for
measurable precipitation from Monday into Monday night should be
realized over western higher terrain locations.

Then, next stronger north-northeasterly surface surge(driven by
1026MB surface high over Nebraska) is expected to move across
eastern sections Tuesday, while upper disturbances impact southern
Colorado from Tuesday into Wednesday, allowing for below seasonal
temperatures and increased pops during this time-frame. The
highest potential for measurable precipitation (including some
higher terrain snow) is anticipated from Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday, favoring southern locations.

It still appears that overall warmer and drier conditions will
prevail from Thursday into Saturday as the dry upper flow pattern
transitions from northwesterly on Thursday to southwesterly by
next weekend. In addition, varying degrees of surface lee-side
troughing returns to southeastern Colorado during this time-frame.

Finally, as touched upon earlier, coolest temperatures over
southern Colorado during the longer term should be realized
Tuesday and Wednesday, with warmest temperatures expected Monday
and then again by next Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sun Sep 23 2018

VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24 hours.
Winds will be light and diurnally driven today. A cold front will
drop south across KCOS and KPUB tonight turning winds northerly.
High clouds will spread across the region late tonight into
Monday.  Mozley




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