Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 202111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
311 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Chances for showers and thunderstorms look rather low for this
evening.  The HRRR shows some isolated precip over the Pikes Peak
region, the Wet mtns and the far southeast plain late this
afternoon, with a batch of precip moving southeastward off the
Rampart Range in the early evening and dissipating about the time it
gets to Crowley county.  The HRRR then shows some isolated activity
over Las Animas and Kiowa counties from about midnight to 3 am. The
NAM is somewhat similar.  The GFS is similar as well but it also has
precip this evening over some of the Sangre de Cristos.  The main
storm threats will be lightning and gusty outflow winds.

Tonight and Thu, an upper level ridge will be slowly building over
the area. The forecast models keep the area dry until late Thu
afternoon, at which point they show just the potential for some
isolated precip over some of the eastern mtns.  Temps on Thu are
expected to be around to a few degrees above average, with highs
mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s over the southeast plains, and
in the mid to upper 80s in the San Luis Valley and the Upper
Arkansas River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Long range models are in decent agreement through the extended
period and ensemble spreads are low leading to higher forecast

Thursday night through Saturday...expect isolated showers and
thunderstorms to be ongoing Thursday evening, dissipating through
the overnight hours. Lightning will be the primary threat with any
thunderstorms across the mountains. Overnight lows will drop into
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

For Friday, issued a fire weather watch for the western half of
the CWA due to expected low humidity values, gusty winds to near
40 mph and critical fuels. This includes the San Luis Valley,
Continental Divide and Eastern Mountains. Out across the Plains,
humidity values will be elevated due to moisture being advected
from the East. Models in good agreement with a dryline setting up
just east of the I-25 corridor and thunderstorms forming during
the afternoon. A quick moving upper level shortwave trough will
also play a role in thunderstorm development, sending a cold front
south into the Plains by late afternoon. One or two of the storms
could be strong to severe with hail in excess of one inch in
diameter and strong outflow wind gusts. Expect thunderstorms to
shift east across the Plains and clear into western Kansas during
the late evening hours.

By Saturday, the upper shortwave will shift east into the Central
Plains with weak high pressure moving across the area. Drier
conditions are expected through the day with possibly a couple of
isolated mountain thunderstorms during the afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the
lower elevations.

Sunday through Monday...the next upper level storm system will
drop south out of the northern Rockies into Northern Colorado
during this period. Sunday looks to be another near critical day
in terms of fire weather for the western half of the CWA. Again, a
dryline is forecast to set up out near the Kansas border on Sunday
afternoon while a cold front combines with the upper disturbance
passing to the north to trigger thunderstorms across the Eastern
Plains. The strongest storms appear at this time to form in far
Eastern Colorado along the dryline, while frontal thunderstorms
remain confined to the Palmer Divide. How far south thunderstorms
develop along the cold front will depend on where the upper
disturbance tracks. On Monday, a secondary cold front will surge
south across the Plains with more widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected across the region.

Tuesday into Wednesday...high pressure will build northward out of
the Desert Southwest. Models are indicating several areas of
embedded energy rotating around the upper high leading to
diurnally and terrain driven showers and thunderstorms. These
showers and thunderstorms will likely move off the mountains out
into the I-25 corridor during the evening hours, before
dissipating with loss of daytime instability. Temperatures will
also begin to warm with highs reaching the upper 90s by Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS, KPUB and KALS. There is a
chance that thunderstorms could end up in the vicinity of KCOS this
evening. Tonight some lower clouds are expected to move into KCOS
and KPUB, but ceilings will probably be between 4000 and 6000 feet
AGL, these clouds should then decrease or dissipate by 14Z Thu.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for COZ220-222>225.



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