Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
412 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 412 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Weak flow aloft will be found over the area today and tonight. There
is expected to be enough moisture over the area today and some weak
upper level energy, that with the daytime heating, should lead to
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains
and high valleys. There could also be a few showers/tstms over
portions of the I-25 corridor, especially over El Paso County and in
Huerfano and Las Animas Counties. The main risks with storms today
will be lighting and gusty outflow winds. Temps will be above
average again, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s across the
southeast plains, with mostly 70s in the high valleys, and upper 60s
to lower 70s in Teller County.

Precip chances should end by late evening.  Overnight low temps
should be in the upper 40s and lower 50s over the plains, with upper
30s and 40s in the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 412 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Tuesday and Wednesday...The remnants of Tropical Storm Beta will
slowly track northward across TX and OK on Tue and Wed, supplying
some additional moisture to the central plains through midweek.
Meanwhile, the flow aloft across the region is expected to continue
being somewhat weak and benign, though a weak disturbance on Tue
will help showers and storms to develop mainly over the higher
terrain during the aftn, which will then linger into Wed. Look for
scattered convection over the higher terrain and isolated activity
along the I-25 corridor on Tue, then isolated to scattered
convection across the mts for Wed. High temps both days will climb
into the 70s to near 80 for the high valleys, and 80s to near 90 for
the plains.

Thursday and Friday...An upper ridge of high pressure will start
building back into the desert sw and Four Corners region for Thu and
Fri, with west to southwest flow aloft beginning to increase.
Conditions are expected to remain dry and increasingly warm, with
temps pushing into the mid 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys,
and lower 80s to lower 90s for the plains.

Saturday and Sunday...a longwave trough crosses the northern US tier
over the weekend, pushing a cold front south into Colorado Sat
morning. This will bring about 10 to 15 degrees of cooling for most
areas for both Sat and Sun. At this time mainly dry conditions look
probable as the extended models are only offering isolated showers
and storms, but stay tuned as the pcpn forecast will likely change
through the week. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 412 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs, although it is possible
that hazy conditions could bring the visibility down into the MVFR
category at KCOS and KPUB at times today.  KCOS and KALS could see
some showers or tstms in the vicinity this afternoon or early
evening, otherwise dry weather is expected.




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