Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181853
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1153 AM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1146 AM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

Quick update out to hoist winter weather advisories for the
central mountains. While snowfall will be on the light side of the
spectrum the impacts from blowing snow will be sufficient to
warrant an advisory for late tonight through Wednesday. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

Upper low over NM early this morning will push east into TX today,
with at least a temporary break in the mid/upper level cloud shield
over the area by afternoon as moisture moves away from the region.
Westerly upper flow across the area today then turns back toward the
nw tonight as strong Pacific NW upper trough pushes eastward into
the nrn Rockies. Should see mid/high level cloudiness increase ahead
of this system this evening and overnight, with snow showers
breaking out over the higher peaks of the central mountains after
06z as moisture thickens and lowers. Not expecting much accumulation
through 12z Tue, perhaps an inch or two over the higher peaks of
Lake County, with some patchy blowing snow developing above
timberline as winds increase. Temps today look mild once again, with
plains into the 50s, while mountains and valleys see 30s/40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

Very low confidence forecast through the extended period,
especially beyond Friday. Ensemble spreads are high and
operational solutions are out of phase leading to the low
confidence forecast.

Wednesday...an upper level storm system is forecast to drop
southeast across Colorado on Wednesday bringing with it moderate
snowfall to the Continental Divide and strong winds to the region.
Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible with locally
higher amounts on northwest slopes, especially north of Cottonwood
Pass. Blowing snow may reduce visibilities over high mountain
passes. Over the Plains, winds will increase out of the northwest
by mid morning with gusts 40 to 50 mph through the afternoon.
Winds should subside by Wednesday evening and snow taper off
through the evening hours.

Thursday and Friday...high pressure will move across the region
with dry conditions expected to prevail. Temperatures will
warm into the 50s and lower 60s across the lower elevation.

Saturday through Monday...generally zonal flow with embedded
shortwaves are possible during this period. The GFS bring systems
across Colorado Saturday into Sunday and an upper level low into
the Desert Southwest late Monday. Snow would be expected with each
disturbance as they move across the region. The ECMWF has
shortwaves on Saturday night an again on Monday into Tuesday while
much slower and further south with the upper low during the middle
of next week. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1013 AM MST Tue Dec 18 2018

VFR conditions expected at the terminals over the next 24 hours. A
passing disturbance will bring strong winds and snow to the
Continental Divide with strong north winds across the terminals
during the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 to 40 kts will be possible
late Wednesday morning through the afternoon at KPUB, KCOS and
KALS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Wednesday for COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT


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