401
FXUS63 KOAX 062012
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
312 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily storm chances (20-50%) continue tonight and persist
  through the week. Repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to
  localized flooding concerns.

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible Monday across
  eastern NE and Tuesday across southeast NE and southwest IA.

- Expect relatively cooler weather by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The latest 500 mb analysis shows large-scale troughing over the
central United States and a weak trough reflected at the
surface. An MCS to surviving longer than anticipated and moving
into eastern Nebraska. A few strong to severe storms are
possible next couple hours. Short-term convective allowing
models show a rapid decrease in coverage and intensity of these
storms and overall MCS by early evening. Another MCS may move
out of the Nebraska panhandle this evening and move into the
western CWA. It too though is expected to weaken dramatically as
it moves into eastern Nebraska.

For tonight expect quiet weather as weak ridging takes the place
of the exiting trough. By Monday afternoon another round of
storms may form as lee troughing develops over the central
Plains. At present the strongest storms are expected in western
Nebraska but will propagate into the far western portions of our
County Warning Area. To the east, shear and instability
parameters are not as robust which should allow storms to weaken
as they progress east Monday evening. With these storms the
damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards,
though a brief tornado can`t be ruled out. The SPC currently
includes much of eastern NE and west-central IA in a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather with a slight risk (level
2 of 5) for northeast Nebraska.

Longer term (Tuesday into next weekend)...Expect an active
weather pattern to continue as a series of shortwaves translate
through the forecast area. This allows for precipitation chances
most days. Temperatures will be cooler for next weekend as a
strong low pressure system passes to our north, brining
relatively cooler air with it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A deck of MVFR-level clouds are in place this afternoon and are
thickest at KOMA, with a line of clearing to SCT or FEW coming
in from the north that is slated to arrive around 19z. Shower
and storm chances for the aviation forecast have been disrupted
by a persistent storm cluster across central Nebraska, what is
expected to continue pushing south-southeast and may clip KOFK
and KLNK late this afternoon/early evening. From there VFR
conditions are expected to win out overnight, with a few patches
of fog/low ceilings being possible in the KOMA/KLNK vicinity if
the overnight storms do not pan out. Otherwise, southeasterly
winds are expected to fall into place by sunrise tomorrow
morning, and last into the early afternoon at less than 15 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pearson/Petersen
AVIATION...Petersen