Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 150810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
310 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Dry forecast and warming trend through Thursday evening with
increasing pops Friday and Saturday.

Dry conditions are expected today as weak surface high pressure
settles overhead. Light east wind and temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s should make a very pleasant day. Southerly low level return
flow sets up over the region by Wednesday while upper level
ridging builds overhead. This should allow highs to warm into the
low 80s Wednesday and into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Southwesterly flow aloft will increase by later in the week as
troughing digs across the Great Basin. A lead short-wave through will
eject into the High Plains region by Thursday night where an area
of convection is likely to spread east across Nebraska overnight
into Friday morning.

By Friday, a frontal boundary will extend northeast from a lee
cyclone over eastern Colorado into eastern Nebraska ahead of an
approaching upper trough. A moist and unstable airmass should be
in place south of the boundary with convection possible Friday
into Friday night. The surface front will push south through the
day Saturday with widespread convection expected behind it as the
upper level trough axis, although de-amplifying, moves overhead.
Dry conditions expected Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

The chance for TSRA or SHRA is highest south of the TAF sites so
have left the forecasts dry for now. Concern for the overnight
period is potential development of low clouds and fog. Model
guidance is still not in good agreement with low visibilities will
be able to go. It appears that KOFK has the highest chance of
having a TEMPO visibility under 3 miles. Ceilings should slowly
lift mid to late morning with VFR by early afternoon. Should be
some MVFR and IFR ceilings late tonight into Tuesday morning.




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