Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 120434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1134 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Quiet weather the next several days with a warming trend.

Surface high pressure continues to build into the area this
afternoon, but low clouds remain. Those clouds will slowly scatter
out through the night, but could still be in place by daybreak
Monday. Weak high pressure prevails on Monday, with light
northwesterly winds, and abundant sunshine, which should boost
temps mostly into the 40s, but reaching the lower 50s in
southeast NE. A reinforcing area of high pressure with temps
about 5 degrees cooler for Tuesday with continued northwesterly

Surface flow becomes south southwest on Wednesday with winds
increasing to 15 to 20 mph by afternoon. This should help boost
temps mostly into the 50s, with some areas in southeast NE
possibly reaching the lower 60s. The warmer temps should help drop
humidity into the mid 20s Wednesday afternoon, which will create
high rangeland fire danger for the entire area. However, wind
speeds do not appear high enough or humidity low enough for red
flag warning criteria at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Surface flow becomes south southeast through the day Thursday, in
response to lee cyclogenesis occurring across the front range of
the Rockies. Surface temps warm well into the 60s this day, but
increasing low level moisture helps keep the rangeland fire danger
just a little bit lower this day than Wednesday.

As a wave move out of the Rockies Thursday night into Friday,
showers could develop within the warm air advection regime ahead
of it. However, models are not in good agreement on how this wave
ejects, with substantially different thermal profiles. Will add
slight chance of showers southeast NE by daybreak Friday, with
shower chances area wide during the day on Friday, with still very
mild temps in the 60s. Saturday looks dry with short wave ridging
across the Plains and highs still in the 50s and 60s. Shower
chances increase again for Sunday as another wave move moves out
of the central Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Surface high pressure will build into the mid Missouri Valley
through the forecast period with persistent north-northwest winds
at 7-10 kt. IR satellite data indicate the back edge of MVFR
stratus slowly advancing through northeast NE and northwest IA
with prevailing VFR conditions expected at KOFK. At KOMA and KLNK,
latest model guidance suggests that the ceilings should scatter
out in the 10-12z time frame.




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