Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161917
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
217 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Models keep getting colder with Lows tonight. After collab, we
decided to add a row of counties to the freeze warning, and the
remainder of the counties to the frost advisory. Parts of the
northern row of counties in the (new) frost advisory may hit 32
briefly, but were left in the advisory headline per collaboration/wwa
pic. The freeze warning counties should see 32 or lower for a
longer duration.

After tonight, we`ll finally see some moderating temps as high
pressure works in and sunshine returns in earnest to the entire
FA. Even so, we`ll still run 5 to 10 below seasonal norms, except
for the far south/west, which may be close to climo.

Another wound up Low makes passage across the upper Midwest/into
the Great Lakes Wednesday, but its effects here look to be mainly
dry with some wind. Won`t be shocked if we end up adding a small
pop, esp east, but for this package, the collab stomach is not
there yet to add. Either way any impact pcpn is nil.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Confidence in the long term portion of the forecast starts off
higher than average with good model agreement through the first half
of the weekend. Confidence decreases at the start of next week with
less certainty regarding the track of the next storm system.

Starting at 12Z Thursday, forecast models show an elongated ridge of
high pressure stretching across the middle of the nation and flanked
by low pressure over the Northeast and Southwest. For our region,
this will result in a continued dry pattern through the first half
of the weekend.

Clouds may initially be stubborn to depart on Thursday, especially
across the northeastern part of the area. However, a trend towards
clearing should work its way eastward throughout Thursday and
Thursday night. The ridge of high pressure will slowly work its way
across the area on Friday and then to our east by Saturday. Forecast
temperatures are 10 to as much as 15 degrees below normal, but it`s
nothing to the extreme of today`s cold.

The western closed low is progged to work its way east into the
southern Plains by Saturday. This will likely result in a good deal
of high and mid clouds, but precipitation should hold off until late
Saturday night at the earliest. The track and timing of the low
still has a fair amount of leeway. However, models have come into
better agreement over the past 24 to 48 hours--particularly with
regard to the GFS trending towards the slower ECMWF and CMC
solutions.

The consensus track of the low is across the Deep South, so any
potential for thunderstorms and heavier rain should largely be
focused to our south in closer proximity to the low. Nevertheless,
the approach and passage of the low will increase the potential for
rain late Saturday night into Sunday night, with a small chance of
rain lingering into Monday mainly in western Kentucky. Temperatures
are forecast to remain slightly below normal through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Restricted cigs are tough in lingering, mainly in our northeast,
where light showers (sn/ra) continue to plague the terminals and
likely won`t fully disperse til the loss of diurnal fuel occurs.
Improving conditions should be noted tonight, as the drier air
already seen working into the west (KCGI clearing) will continue
to move east. Improvement to VFR for all terminals is expected
with winds relaxing as High pressure moves in/takes control.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ILZ088>094.

     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     ILZ075>078-080>087.

MO...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114.

     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ076.

IN...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     KYZ001>013-016-017.

     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     KYZ014-015-018>022.

&&

$$



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