285
FXUS65 KPUB 240506
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1106 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing coverage of daily thunderstorms expected through the
  middle of the week, with strong to severe storms possible across
  the southeast plains.

- Warmer and drier for the end of the week, before another
  uptick in storms later this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest
southwest flow aloft across the region, with a northern stream
trough continuing to lift out across the Upper Midwest, as another
trough is digging across the West Coast at this time. Blended total
water vapor imagery is indicating a slug of subtropical moisture in
place across Old Mexico into the Southern and Central High Plains,
with PWATs of 0.5 to 1.25 inches in place across eastern Colorado
at this time. This mornings cold front has pushed into eastern New
Mexico, with east to southeast winds slowly increasing low moisture
across the plains, with dew pts in the upper 40s to upper 50s at
this time, greatest across the Southern Tier, where SBCape is
running between 500-1500 j/kg attm. Further west, dew pts remain
in the 20s and 30s. Temperatures have been slow to warm across the
plains with morning clouds, with current readings in the 70s, and
readings in the 60s to low 80s across the higher terrain.

Tonight...High res model data still indicates isolated to scattered
showers and storms across the eastern mtns and plains, with the best
coverage across the Raton Mesa into the more unstable atmosphere
across the far southeast plains, where strong to severe storms could
still develop. With high res models indicating increasing shear,
there is the potential for isolated supercell development across
eastern Las Animas, Bent and Baca Counties through the late
afternoon, with the storms possibly congealing into a convective
cluster and pushing into western Kansas into the evening. Storm
threats include large hail to around an inch in diameter, wind gusts
to around 60 mph and locally heavy rainfall, with the increasing
available moisture. Otherwise, continued easterly upslope flow and
possible moist outflow from plains storms will lead morning low
clouds and patchy fog across the plains, with temperatures overnight
lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Further west, mainly clear skies
overnight, with seasonal lows in the 40s across the higher terrain.

Tuesday...Increasing available moisture remains progged across
the region, as flow aloft becomes more southerly, with the West
Coast upper trough translating into the Great Basin. Low level
moisture remains in place across the plains within south to
southeast return flow, leading to an expected classic day two
severe weather episode across southeast Colorado, with capes of
1500- 2500 j/kg and bulk shears of 35 to 45 kts across the
region. The latest SPC Day 2 Outlook has the Northern I-25
Corridor in a slight risk, with the rest of the plains in a
marginal risk for severe weather, with large hail up of 1 to 2
inches possible, along with strong winds the main threats. Heavy
rain and localized flash flooding will also be possible with
expected PWATs running up to 125 to 175 percent of normal. With
the available moisture pushing west, should see a better chance
of showers and storms across the Continental Divide tomorrow
afternoon, with the best coverage of storms across the eastern
mtns and plains through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures
tomorrow look to be around seasonal norms, in the 80s to lower
90s across the plains and in the 60s to lower 80s across the
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

Showers and thunderstorms look to persist well into the evening, and
possibly through much of the overnight hours, for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. With the strong fetch of moisture coming in from
our south and the wave to our west, temperatures look to stay mild,
and around 3 to 6 degrees warmer than normal for Tuesday`s overnight
low temperatures. Models place an open wave over the Great Basin by
early Wednesday morning, translating it across Colorado throughout
the day and evening on Wednesday as it weakens. This looks to result
in another round of showers and thunderstorms across all of south
central and southeastern Colorado. Ensemble guidance continues to
show PWAT anomalies at around 180-200% of normal for Wednesday,
meaning that our showers and storms will likely produce meaningful
rainfall, but could also possibly lead to flash flooding in some
areas. Our burn scars will need to continue to be monitored into
Wednesday. As of this writing, SPC has our plains outlined for a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, and WPC has our entire
forecast area outlined for a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as
well. Daytime highs on Wednesday look be very similar to Tuesday,
remaining around 5 to 8 degrees cooler than normal. Highs in the 70s
are likely for our mountain valleys and the Pikes Peak region, with
80s likely elsewhere on our plains.

Thursday and Friday...

Thursday and Friday look to be a bit of a transitional period, going
from southwesterly flow on Thursday to westerly flow by this
weekend. We dry out enough to keep convection very isolated, but not
enough to really be cause for fire weather concern quite yet,
especially given that we *should* see significant precipitation for
many areas through the first half of the week. Winds also look to
remain fairly weak by Colorado standards through this period, which
will also help to reduce fire weather concerns. Overall, expect near
normal temperatures with Friday being a few degrees warmer than
Thursday, partly cloudy skies, and isolated showers and
thunderstorms both days.

Saturday Onwards...

Models continue to show another open wave this weekend into early
next week, which will likely bring along more chances for widespread
showers and thunderstorms. For now, Saturday and Sunday look near to
just above normal for temperatures with isolated coverage for
showers and storms over the high country on Saturday, and increasing
coverage for Sunday. Depending on timing with the incoming wave, a
cool down would be possible for Sunday or Monday, along with
increasing chances for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

A round of showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible near
the KCOS terminal between 06z-08z before pushing off to the
northeast leaving MVFR cigs to fill in over both KCOS and KPUB
overnight. Cigs will break Tuesday morning with thunderstorms
developing over the mountains around noon and pushing off into
both terminals in the 21-24z timeframe. Gusty erratic winds up
to 50 kts, hail and brief VFR to MVFR cigs/vis will be possible
with the stronger storms and will keep a Prob30 for TSRA at both
terminals. Thunderstorms should clear out to the east of both
terminals around 00z-01z with VFR cigs lingering into the
evening. Winds will be predominantly southeasterly through the
day tomorrow before wind directions become contaminated by
thunderstorm outflow boundaries from the late afternoon through
early evening.

KALS will also see a good chance for showers and thunderstorms late
tonight and again Tuesday afternoon.  Gusty erratic winds up to 40
kts along with VFR cigs/vis under -TSRA is the most likely scenario
though stronger storms could drop cigs/vis briefly into the MVFR
category.  Thunderstorms should push east of the terminal with BKN
VFR cloudiness lingering through the evening as winds settle into a
more southeast direction overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT