Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 170059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
659 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Issued at 655 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Update is for allowing the RED FLAG warning to expire. Winds are
rapidly decreasing across the plains. Winds will shift to the
northeast at 5 to 10 mph by mid evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

As expected, strong wind have been occurring across most of
southeast and south central CO.  These winds, combined with low
humidities have created high fire danger.  Will leave the Red Flag
Warning in effect until 7 PM today.  The winds will decrease this
evening and the fire danger will lessen overnight.  Dry weather will
be found over southeast and south central CO tonight and Saturday.

On Saturday, a weather system will be over the western U.S., and
will increase the winds again over CO as it moves into the Great
Basin late in the day.  Thus, many areas in southern CO will see
gusty south to southwest winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening
hours. This will again increase the fire danger.  The locations that
are expected to have the highest fire danger will be Bent, Prowers,
eastern Las Animas and Baca counties, and will therefore issue a Red
Flag Warning for these locations for Sat.  At this time, conditions
look a little marginal over portions of Prowers and Baca counties,
as the humidities may stay a little higher than 15%, but will be
very close to reaching that critical threshold, and it is dries out
a little more than expected, humidities could easily fall below 15%.
Temps on Sat will again be above average, with highs in the 60s over
most of the plains, and in the 50s in the high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Upper trough swings eastward from the Great Basin through the srn
Rockies Sat night and Sun, then deepens into a closed low over the
srn High Plains Sun night into Mon. Strong surface cyclogenesis
begins Sun over sern CO, leading to a 990mb low somewhere over se
CO/sw KS Sun night into early Mon morning. Still some uncertainty
in location/intensity of heaviest precip late Sun/Mon morning,
though model surface and upper level features have come into
better agreement, with increasing confidence for a significant
spring storm over portions of the region. As system approaches,
snow begins along the Continental Divide Sun morning, then
ramps up in intensity during the afternoon as upward motion
increases. Precip spreads across interior valleys, the eastern
mountains and the I-25 corridor late Sun afternoon before moving
onto the plains Sun night/Mon morning. Major impacts will likely
hold off until Sun night, as rain changes to snow along the I-25
corridor as extremely strong N-NW winds develop with surface
gradient tightening and band of 50-60 knot 700 mb winds rotating
southward around the deepening system. Significant snow and wind
looks increasingly likely for at least the Palmer Divide Sun
night, with potential impacts farther south through Colorado
Springs, Pueblo and the eastern plains if dynamic lift under the
trowal can overcome strong downslope wind component, which 18z NAM
suggests is possible. Still a little early for highlights, but
suspect we`ll need at least some watches/advisories within the
next 24 hrs as event approaches. Low lifts out Mon with steady
precip ending, although -shsn will linger over the mountains until
Mon evening.

Upper ridge builds for Tue/Wed, then next strong trough moves
into the wrn U.S. late week. Should see mild temps and relatively
light winds under the ridge Tue/Wed, then increasing winds eastern
zones and a chance for snow over the mountains Thu/Fri as system
approaches the Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Fri Mar 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Gusty westerly winds will continue into the early evening hours and
will then decrease.  KALS is expected to see gusty south to
southwest winds Sat afternoon, with gusts around 25 kts.  KCOS
should see south winds Sat afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 30 kts
possible.  KPUB may not be all that gusty on Sat, with south to
southeast winds, maybe up to 20 kts at times in the afternoon.


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224>237.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ233-



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