Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 172105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
305 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

This afternoon, the southern I-25 corridor has been seeing Red Flag
conditions, and conditions are getting close to meeting the criteria
across Otero and Bent counties, with the humidity at 2 PM being just
a few percent too high, but will probably dry out a little more in
the next hour or two.  Most locations in the San Luis Valley have
seen humidities stay above 15 percent, but the Alamosa area has
dried out enough and has occasional wind gusts that meet red flag
criteria, but conditions are not widespread enough to warrant
spreading the Warning into the San Luis Valley. Will leave the Red
Flag Warning as is thru 7 PM. Winds will decrease this evening
across southeast and south central CO. Tonight an upper level trof
will move into UT, and ahead of this system some light snow may
develop late tonight along the Continental Divide, but the rest of
the area will remain dry.

Sunday, the upper level trof will move over CO.  At midday, the
forecast models show an upper low centered near the 4 corners
region, with most precip still along the Continental Divide, with a
few to several inches of accumulation expected in the central, and
some of the southwest mtns. The Winter Weather Advisory that is in
effect for Sunday still looks reasonable, so will not make any
changes to that highlight. Thru the afternoon, the NAM and GFS show
the upper low tracking across extreme northern NM, making it into
the northeast corner of NM by about 00Z Mon.  As the low moves
eastward, some precip will also spread into the eastern mtns,
although it doesn`t look like much precip.  The southeast plains may
see some light precip as well in the late afternoon. It will once
again be breezy to windy across much of the area in the
afternoon. At this time it generally looks like humidities will be
too high on Sunday for fire weather concerns, however much of the
southeast plains is expected to see min RH values right around 15
percent, so we could see some areas of marginal Red Flag

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Windy with some snow possible Sunday night...

Models still in decent agreement with mid level closed low pressure
system forecast to move across southern Colorado to the OK/TX
panhandles Sunday night. At the surface...GFS is slightly farther
south and east with the surface low center over KS/OK border, while
the NAM keeps the compact surface low over southeast Colorado.
Primary concerns with the weather Sunday night will continue to be
snow and wind. Right now, the best chances for snow appear to be in
the mountains and northern El Paso County across the Palmer Divide.
It will be a sharp cutoff to the areas which receive snow in El Paso
County and the areas that will have downsloping northerly winds
overnight. Expect snow to accumulate in Monument, but then taper off
quickly across the north side of Colorado Springs. Downslope winds
will limit the potential for snow in southern El Paso County and in
Pueblo. Models bring some wrap around precipitation into the far
eastern plains later Sunday night into early Monday. Strong
northerly winds develop across the I-25 corridor Sunday night. Areas
that do see snow will also have poor visibility at times in blowing
snow. Current forecast has northerly winds of 25 to 35 knots with
gusts to 45 knots from 03z to 12z Monday. Strongest winds shift east
and gradually weaken Monday as the system moves into southern
Missouri. Could be a blustery and cold commute Monday morning with
some commuters facing snow and ice over the Palmer Divide. Have not
posted any winter highlights yet, snow amounts of 2 to 5 inches
currently in the forecast, but travel impacts are expected for the
northern portion of the area.

Models continue to show a weak embedded wave moving through the
central mountains Monday afternoon with a few snow showers possible
at the higher elevations. Temperatures on Monday will be generally
below seasonal averages, in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the lower
elevations and in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain.

Expect warmer and drier conditions to return to southern Colorado by
midweek. Increasing chances for snow showers across the Continental
Divide Thursday and Friday, as more Pacific energy moves across the
West Coast and into the Rockies. Fire weather conditions may be a
concern for the southeast plains Thursday into Friday with
increasing westerly winds, warm temperatures, and low humidities



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sat Mar 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Gusty winds will continue into the early evening hours at KALS and
will then decrease, but gusty west to southwest winds will kick up
again for Sun afternoon.  Sunday afternoon there could be some
showers in the vicinity of KALS which could briefly bring lower
ceilings.  KCOS will continue to see some gusty south to southeast
winds into the early evening and then they will decrease, but gusty
southerly winds will likely kick up again Sun afternoon.  On Sun,
toward the evening hours, some showers could be in the vicinity of
KCOS which could lower ceilings for awhile.  At KPUB dry weather
will continue, with maybe a shower or tow in the area late Sun
afternoon or in the evening.  Winds at KPUB will pickup in the
afternoon hours.


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ225-228>233-

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 9 AM MDT Monday for

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for



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