483
FXUS63 KPAH 061836
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
136 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances continue today and will continue
  through next week with daily chances.

- Heat and humidity persist.

- Temperatures cool slightly later in the week with highs moving
  into the upper 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Watching isolated to scattered thunder develop across parts of
SEMO/southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. In the hot and
humid airmass MLCAPEs are about 2500 J/kg. SFc-700mb theta-e
differentials are about 25-30C with essentially non-existent
shear. PWAT values are about 2.00 inches. This will result in
very slow moving convection with very efficient rainfall rates
and with the slow movement isolated flash flooding is possible.
A few damaging downbursts are also possible this afternoon.

We then stay embedded in a relative weakness in the flow aloft
through Wednesday. With surface dewpoints in the low 70s
afternoon showers and storms are pretty much guaranteed through
that period. Coverage will be limited by the relatively lack of
forcing but locally heavy rain and a downburst or two seem
possible given the parameter space.

A little bit of a coverage decrease for the latter half of the
week, briefly, before an aspiring cooler-than-it-was front tries
to work towards the area on Saturday. From the look of the
upper-level pattern provided by the GFS/ECMWF I wouldn`t get my
hopes up too high the front makes it through but it does seem to
be strong enough to result in an increase in coverage of showers
and storms. Heat index values remain hot but seasonable and
below advisory levels based on the current forecast.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Convection is the primary flight impediment today. Isolated to
scattered activity over SEMO and SIL is expected to persist and
increase in coverage. Downbursts will be a threat with stronger
activity today. A slow spread eastward of the activity is
anticipated. Coverage should peak in the mid to late afternoon
but some showers and thunder may persist through the early
evening. Activity will be moving east about 15 mph so it could
impact terminals for a bit before moving on.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG