Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 160427
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1127 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Update for 06Z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Will continue to monitor convective trends through the evening
hours. Consensus of several models seems to indicate the best
instability should continue to develop over SEMO, into far west KY
into the early evening. We have some development in this area
ahead of a weak H5 shear axis and increasing instability. How
things evolve through midnight not as clear, so will keep PoPs
more broad brush and most everywhere, generally in the lower
chance range and will use scattered terminology. Will continue
with that approach overnight as well. A pulse strong to severe
storm or two cannot be ruled out entirely. Locally heavy rain also
possible.

Otherwise convective chances continue Wednesday through Thursday.
Warm and unstable conditions, especially during the afternoon and
evening will continue to be in place. Meanwhile weak mid level low
energy over the north central Plains will merge with the SE U.S.
trof and lower heights, with the axis ending up either over or
just east of the MS River Valley region. Best convective chances
will be east of the MS River, lowering west into SEMO. Warm and
humid conditions will persist. Slightly lower high temperatures
are forecast given the presence of the trof and variable cloud
cover.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

High confidence in temperatures remaining above normal through the
extended forecast. Lower confidence in daily rain chances as a
fairly unsettled pattern remains in place.

On Friday, the expected location of the upper trough axis is such
that rain chances should be confined to the eastern half of the
region.

While not non-zero, rain chances look very slim Friday
evening through Saturday evening, as upper ridging is expected to
nudge into the region, and thus removed mentionable PoPs for this
time period.

A frontal boundary will return rain to the region later in the
weekend. Guidance is indicating showers and storms spreading into
northwest counties Saturday night, but the best chance area wide is
expected on Sunday into Sunday night as the front pushes through the
area. PoPs linger mainly across southern counties on Monday, and a
lot depends on how far south the front gets by then.

The Canadian and ECMWF are dry for much of the region on Tuesday,
but the GFS has another shortwave moving into the region from the
west with shower/storm threat returning. Thus, the blend generated
slight/chance PoPs, and feel like this is the best way to go for
now.

Overall, did tend to lower PoPs some from the blend and/or remove
them from certain periods through the extended, to account for the
low confidence in timing/placement.

Temperatures will remain above normal throughout the period, as our
taste of summer-like weather continues to invade the typically
pleasant May temperatures. Highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s will
be common. With southerly flow in place over the weekend, highs may
touch 90 in some locations. Record highs are a few degrees warmer by
then, so we should fall several degrees short of those.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Not a lot of changes still. Believe most places will be dry
overnight. However the models try start a shower around the EVV
and OWB areas around 12z. However chance too small to include. As
the frontal passage starts to move through around mid day
Wednesday chances increase and have at least a prob group
everywhere. Chances will decrease by Wednesday evening and left
mention out for that time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH



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