Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 021511
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1011 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.UPDATE...

No morning update is needed at this time.

/44/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex, sfc winds are S/SE 5-10KT with MVFR cigs
arriving SW climb winds 10-20KT 1-3kft then winds veer to light
and variable and then NW/N/NE 10-20kt for FL200 and abv. VFR
should return 13-15Z. Models indicating some convection possible
along MS river vcts in for KMLU and overnight this weak fropa will
push in the back door from the NE. Convection possible overnight
for KTXK,KSHV,KELD. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday night/

Low clouds are moving into place to fill our skies this morning
and El Dorado with still clear skies, has a little light fog while
waiting. Air temps are in the mid to upper 70s everywhere with
DTN SHV the warmest as of late with 81 last hour. Our winds are
southerly with 5 to 10 KTs for most of the area and a few calm
spots here and there.

We will see S/SW winds today 5-15KT with a slight chance for a
late day thunderstorm in SE AR and N/NE LA. This is new
thunderstorm activity will be made possible by dew point pooling
along a weak back door cold front. This boundary will continue to
edge into our area with mid and upper level winds steering
convection. During this evening and the overnight hours, we will
see this activity edging farther Westward into NE TX and even
Toledo Bend country by daybreak. The SPC has a marginal risk for
about the NE third or half of our cwa. The weak frontal boundary
will allow for continued convective development areawide on
Friday and the SPC has a general risk to end the work week. The
WPC has a marginal excessive outlook arriving with the boundary
and lingering over the weekend for even their day three. Event
totals may bring an inch or two, while some areas may end up
missed as this will not be a front door squall. More like segments
easing into play.

Our sfc winds will eventually be shifting on Friday from SW
veering to NW/N by sundown. Light and variable overnight and
models still have some activity, but only slight rain chances.
Due to the uncertainty of the convection arriving, we have
decided to wait extending current heat advisory area wide, rather
thinking mainly for TX counties where some compressional heating
will still have a role. Plus the clouds and convection could
render aid as well to our eastern fringe. /24/

LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/

As we move into the holiday weekend, we will continue to witness a
repositioning of the upper ridge retrograding into Northern Mexico
with the axis located as far north as the Northern Plains. An
inverted trough will remain locked across SE LA eastward across the
NE Gulf Coast. With the ridge to our west, we will see almost
northerly flow aloft which will help to bring disturbances southward
into our region. The end result will be scattered convection during
the afternoon and evening hours across most of the Four State
Region.

This pattern will hang around through the remainder of the holiday
weekend and into the middle portions of next week as well.
Concerning temperatures, did shave afternoon Max Temps a few degrees
over the weekend into early next week as a displaced ridge axis and
rain chances will not promote temperatures as warm as the NBM
suggests. Lows were in pretty good shape so did not change these
grids much. /13/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 144 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  76  96  75 /  10  20  50  30
MLU  95  76  94  73 /  40  50  80  30
DEQ  93  75  94  72 /  10  30  60  30
TXK  93  77  93  73 /  10  30  50  30
ELD  93  76  92  72 /  20  50  70  30
TYR  94  77  97  75 /   0  10  10  20
GGG  95  77  97  74 /  10  20  30  30
LFK  96  75  97  75 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

13/24/44



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