Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 200552
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 20 2021

.AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex terminals skc trending with most of the VFR decks
along and south of I-20 terminals. Calm winds now will begin to
stir out the southwest and become gusty mid to late morning and
then on into the early afternoon before shifting to W and NW
18-24Z for all sites as a strong cold front moves through the
region. SW10-20KT shifting to WNW15-25KT mid aftn then gusts
slack overnight as N winds persist 5-15KT. There will likely be
areas of clouds with the fropa, but ra may be lacking here. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1058 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/

UPDATE...

Some minor adjustments to temperatures to account for recent trends.
This resulted in lowering overnight lows a couple degrees in our
northern zones.  Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on
track. Clouds will gradually decrease from north to south during the
overnight period, with some lingering cigs across our extreme
southern zones.  Winds to remain light and variable, with overnight
lows generally ranging from the low 40s north, to upper 40s in our
southern zones. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 713 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/

AVIATION...

For the 20/00z TAFs...Latest satellite imagery continue to show
mid to high level clouds moving across the region. Despite the
cloud cover, VFR conditions to prevail for all terminals. Some
clearing is expected overnight at most sites, with cigs remaining
at LFK. A front will move through the region towards the end of
the TAF period. A few showers may develop along the front as it
passes through, but confidence is too low to include in forecast.
Winds will generally remain light/variable overnight, then
becoming southwesterly after daybreak ahead of the frontal
boundary. Winds will eventually become northwesterly in wake of
the front by the end of the TAF period. There is a chance for
some patchy fog development towards daybreak tomorrow so have some
mention of BR for KLFK and KMLU. /20/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 157 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Satellite imagery from this afternoon continues to show some mid
to high level clouds stream over the area from the west. Expecting
this trend to continue as we head into the overnight hours
tonight. While it is not anticipated, there is a non-zero chance
that a few sprinkles could be seen across our far southern zones
of deep east Texas and central Louisiana overnight, but it will
have little to no impact. Temperatures tonight will be around 5
degrees below seasonable normals with lows ranging from the mid
40s to lower 50s across the area.

By Tuesday, surface high pressure that was over the area will
continue to push to the east. Meanwhile, a unseasonably strong
cold front, that is currently being analyzed to be across southern
Kansas, will be approaching our northern zones by midday Tuesday.
Temperatures will fall rapidly behind the cold front, with highs
being reached early in the day for our northern zones. The cold
front should push through the entire area by Tuesday evening.
Model consensus is keeping the area fairly dry as the cold front
pushes through on Tuesday. That being said, HREF members are
showing a few showers possibly popping up along the front as it
moves through the area. At this time, will leave the forecast
fairly dry, with only some low end PoPs across portions of
southwest Arkansas, but there is a chance some additional showers
could pop up as the front moves through the region.

Northwesterly flow behind the front will help usher in some near
record breaking cold temperatures for portions of the area.
Overnight lows will drop into the lower 30s across our northern
zones to the lower 40s across our southern zones. At this time, it
appears that Shreveport, Tyler, Longview, Texarkana, and El Dorado
have the best chance at tying or breaking lows Wednesday morning.

/33/

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/

The start of the long term period to be characterized by continued
cold air advection as high pressure builds across the region behind
a cold front. Temperatures on Wednesday to climb into the mid 60s.
As surface high settles over the region overnight, winds to become
light and variable with overnight lows in the lower 40s areawide.

Pattern to transition into a warmer regime as surface high shifts
east and southerly flow increases across east Texas on Thursday.
Additionally, upper-flow to become more zonal with moisture
increasing aloft allowing for increased cloud cover into Thursday
night. Temperatures to range from highs on Thursday in the mid 60s
to lower 70s, to lows in the lower to middle 50s on Thursday night.

Showers to increase in coverage on Friday as upper-level flow
becomes southwest ahead of a trough forecast to swing east across
Texas. The most active convective period through the long term will
be from Friday night into Saturday. Increased low-level moisture
combined with steepening lapse rates ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary will provide deep convection areawide on Friday night,
supporting thundersorms. Severe threat remains uncertain Friday
night going into Saturday. Determining factors will depend on the
strength and and placement of the upper-trough as it moves across
the region along with the time of day and its collocation with the
frontal boundary.

Otherwise, conditions forecast to improve on Saturday evening as
high pressure rebuilds across the region. Temperatures to range from
highs in the mid 70s to lows in the 50s late in the weekend. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  39  65  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  41  64  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  34  65  43  66 /   0   0  10  10
TXK  37  64  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
ELD  36  65  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  37  64  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  37  64  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  41  68  45  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/20/33/05


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