Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 120823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

High pressure will continue to build southward into Kansas today.
Area of low clouds have been slow to clear west to east through the
early morning hours. Nighttime microphysics loop shows the stratus
moving southeast across eastern Nebraska while slowly eroding on the
west edge across north central Kansas at 0730Z. Have slowed clearing
and seems as though a combination of short term high resolution
guidance may have a handle on the clearing trend from northwest to
southeast and have accounted for this for the morning hours. Expect
all areas to be sunny by afternoon hours with high temperatures
topping out in the lower 50s.

Expect an increase in high level clouds this evening then clearing
toward sunrise on Tuesday. The cloud increase will be due to mid
level shortwave moving southeast out of Idaho early this morning
then moves southeast and shears out as it moves across Kansas
tonight. Lows tonight will range from the low 20s in north central
Kansas to the mid 20s in east central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

On Tuesday, surface high pressure begins to advance south,
eventually centering over eastern Kansas late Tuesday night.  Highs
this day will be similar to those of Monday reaching into the upper
40s and low 50s.  By Wednesday afternoon, this high pressure will be
located southeast of the area shifting winds from the south and
aiding in warm air advection throughout the day.  Temperatures are
forecast to reach into the 60s across northeast Kansas, with
afternoon dewpoints in the 20s.  With wind gusts up to 25 mph across
northeast Kansas, expect some fire weather concerns this day.  Warm
air advection continues into Thursday with highs in the upper 60s
and 70s.  Slightly higher dewpoints may act to mitigate some of the
fire danger this day although it still looks like in central and
east central Kansas winds will be gusty Thursday afternoon.  A lee
cyclone moving towards eastern Kansas Thursday night may lead to
some showers and thunderstorms across northeast Kansas.

As noted in the previous discussion, the ECMWF continues to be much
cooler for Friday than other models which forecast highs Friday
afternoon reaching into the 60s and low 70s.  Moving into the
weekend, models continue to vary near the end of the extended
forecast with the GFS developing a mid-level closed low over the
southwest US, while the ECMWF shows something similar except as an
open wave and slightly further north with its placement.  With these
discrepancies, confidence in impacts of the system moving towards the
central Plains this weekend is not high as of now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

The MVFR stratus ceilings are holding on a bit longer. I expect
after 9Z MON, KMHK should become clear and the clearing line will
slowly translate east across the KTOP and KFOE terminals after 12Z
MON. Most of the day light hours and into Monday night should be




LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...gargan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.