Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 162013
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
213 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Current surface map show weak cold front across southern North
Dakota. Thunderstorms are developing around the Big Horns.
1000-1500J/KG MLCAPE located across northeast Wyoming into
southwest South Dakota with weakening cap. CAMs continue to show a
few discrete cells late this afternoon/early evening across
northeast Wyoming into south central South Dakota.

For Tuesday, mid level impulse crosses the Rockies into the
Northern Plains...with best lift across the forecast area late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Widespread thunderstorms
expected, especially the Black Hills area. May be a few
strong/severe thunderstorms. With precipitable water of 1.50"+ and
slower storm motion, biggest threat may be locally heavy
rainfall.

Warmer and drier conditions expected for the end of the work week
with weak upper level ridge. Chance for thunderstorms increase
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1108 AM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018

SCT TSRA will develop over northeastern WY and southwestern/south
central SD beginning mid-afternoon, with activity continuing into
the early overnight period. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible in these TSRA, along with the potential for hail and
gusty winds in the strongest storms. Latest guidance suggests TSRA
will remain south and east of KRAP, but will monitor trends for
potential addition of a TEMPO group for VCTS this afternoon or
evening.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...Sherburn


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