Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 170424

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1024 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Issued at 744 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Convection continues to decrease across the area early this
evening, and it looks like the majority of activity the rest of
tonight should remain well south of I-90. Could still see an
uptick in the convection across far south central SD late tonight
as low level jet increases.


.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Current surface map show weak cold front across southern North
Dakota. Thunderstorms are developing around the Big Horns.
1000-1500J/KG MLCAPE located across northeast Wyoming into
southwest South Dakota with weakening cap. CAMs continue to show a
few discrete cells late this afternoon/early evening across
northeast Wyoming into south central South Dakota.

For Tuesday, mid level impulse crosses the Rockies into the
Northern Plains...with best lift across the forecast area late
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Widespread thunderstorms
expected, especially the Black Hills area. May be a few
strong/severe thunderstorms. With precipitable water of 1.50"+ and
slower storm motion, biggest threat may be locally heavy

Warmer and drier conditions expected for the end of the work week
with weak upper level ridge. Chance for thunderstorms increase
early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1021 PM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Isolated TSRA remains possible tonight near the SD/NEB border,
with brief MVFR visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue through Tuesday morning. Additional TSRA will develop
late Tuesday afternoon across northeast WY and the Black Hills,
then spread east onto the SD plains Tuesday night.




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