Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 122048

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
148 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday)
Issued at 145 PM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Current surface map places 1040mb high across southern
Saskatchewan into North Dakota. Shortwave moving across western
South Dakota bringing a little light snow, with most of the
activity pushing east of the BlacK Hills.

For tonight, surface high slides into eastern Dakotas/Minnesota.
Weak return flow will result in rising temperatures overnight for
northeast Wyoming into the Black Hills. Warm front pushes through
western South Dakota on Saturday with increasing west-northwest
low level flow. Steep low level lapse rates and sufficient
moisture favor some upslope enhanced snow across the northern
Black Hills Saturday afternoon/evening. Some light snow/flurries
possible across the rest of the area. Temperatures near average on
Sunday, especially across southwest South Dakota. Upper trough
rotating around the west side of a Hudson Bay low will drop into
the Dakotas late Sunday/Sunday night. This will bring another
round of light snow as arctic drops through the forecast area.
With 1050mb high across across the Dakotas Monday, will be
another cold day.

Models in decent agreement for the middle of the week. Upper
level ridge shifts across the northern plains Tuesday, with
shortwave breaking down ridge late Wednesday. Above average
temperatures expected for the middle of the week. Best chance of
precipitation will come at the end of the week as next system
crosses the Rockies.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1048 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2018

Areas of MVFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and
into tonight, with some IFR conditions redeveloping tonight,
especially across the Black Hills area. Areas of light snow and
flurries over western and south central SD will dissipate early
this afternoon. There is a chance for light snow tonight into
Saturday morning from far northeast WY to the northern Black Hills




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