Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 142339
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
439 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Water vapor shows upper trof moving out of the Northern Rockies
into the Northern Plains, with associated surface trof pushing
into the eastern Dakotas. Plenty of radar echoes across the cwfa
this afternoon, but a very dry airmass (per 12Z KUDX sounding)
keeping most of the pcpn from reaching the ground. Some light pcpn
is reaching the ground over SE MT, however.

Cold advection expected to increase across the region later this
afternoon and evening as pressure rises currently over MT move
into the western Dakotas. Some light pcpn expected to pass over
our northern half of zones as echoes currently over SE MT advect
eastward.

Cooler conditions then expected on Wednesday. SW flow aloft
returns on Thursday with upper trof over the Pac NW. Thickness
ridge will peak over the cwfa ahead of an approaching cold front,
with dry and gusty SW winds pushing temps well into the 60s many
locations with low rh and elevated fire wx concerns.

Cold front pushes through late Thursday with some light rain/snow
showers and breezy/cooler conditions for Friday. Upper ridge then
rebuilds and dominates our wx through the weekend into early next
week with above average temps and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening
Issued At 432 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

Cold front has pushed across northeastery WY and most western SD
and will continue eastward through central SD this evening with
areas seeing a couple of hours of breezy winds before they
subside overnight. Areas of MVFR cigs and isolated rain showers
are possible during the evening, especially over northestern WY
and northwestern SD, as an upper trof crosses the northern
Plains. Skies will clear and winds will switch to the south
Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 PM MST Tue Nov 14 2017

A few light showers possible through this evening but very low
chance of wetting rains. It will be a bit cooler on Wednesday,
followed by much warmer conditions on Thursday with gusty
southwest winds and low relative humidity leading to elevated fire
weather conditions. Another cold front will move through Thursday
night into Friday bringing cooler weather for the weekend along
with some showers Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...55



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