


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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846 FXUS63 KUNR 091727 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1127 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Isolated to scattered thunderstorms continue over the next couple days, some of which may be strong to severe today, especially this afternoon in western South Dakota -Hot today, with moderating temps through the weekend behind a cold front -Mainly dry this weekend with unsettled conds possible again next week && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday) Issued at 123 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Mean WNW flow aloft will continue, supporting near daily impulses through the region the next few days. A stronger system will force a cold front through the region Thursday night, with things cooling down Friday and mainly dry weather this weekend. Weak impulse currently supporting elevated pos theta-e adv across scentral SD this morning. Expect isold TS to continue there, shifting east through early morning. A few stronger cells are possible, supporting hail and gusty winds. Lee-side trough will slowly push into the region today and will provide the focus for sct SHRA and TS this afternoon, in addition to expected convection over the Black Hills. Weakly capped environment with abundant ll moisture will be in place ahead of the trough, with weak forcing aloft providing the additional support needed to fire convection. ML CAPE of 1500-3000 J/JG will be enough for isold strong to severe storms when coupled with increasing shear as a jetlet advects into the region later. Storms will shift east this evening. However, another round of elevated pos theta-e adv will support slight chances for TS overnight across much of the area, although there would likely be banding in cells where the nose of the strongest advection occurs. Another slug of monsoon moisture will advect over the region Thurs ahead of a stronger impulse. This combined with residual LL moisture will support another round of sct-isold TS Thurs afternoon and evening, with the bulk of convection shifting into central and eastern SD in the evening. Breezy NW winds will develop behind the cold front Thur night with cooling and drying ongoing. Residual moisture may force a few showers/storms over the far SW Friday, but most places will probably end up dry. Mainly sunny and dry this weekend, although return flow may support convection by Sunday over the far west. Unsettled flow then looks to return next week as a baroclinic zone stalls near or over the region with sufficient moisture and fast flow aloft. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday) Issued At 1126 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Isolated to scattered storms are expected this afternoon and evening. Brief MVFR conditions may be possible in storms. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Dye