


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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403 FXUS63 KUNR 120701 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 101 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Dry this weekend with temps warming back up through Monday, when triple digits will return -Unsettled conditions return next week with a significant cool down mid next week && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday) Issued at 1257 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Semi-zonal flow will persist across the international border through early next week as the western CONUS ridge builds and shifts east. This will support dry conds through the weekend. However, a stronger impulse will shift a strong cold front into the region by Wed of next week as unsettled weather returns. Fairly deep upper low over the upper Midwest continues to push east as a weak sfc high shifts over the FA. Clear skies, light winds, and a fairly dry BL has allowed temps to drop off this morning, esp in drainage areas in the Black Hills where a few 30s have been observed. WAA and height rises will ramp up today with sunny skies and generally light winds. Expect highs generally in the 80s, cooler in the higher terrain. Weak sfc trough will move through the region Sunday, with the only effect being a shift of wind as lack of moisture and forcing will preclude any precip. WAA will ensue Sunday night, with much warmer conds expected by Monday when most places will see 90s, with a few 100s on the SD plains. An upper level impulse will advect through the region Monday with diurnal heating, sufficient moisture, and weak CIN allowing chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon. Upper jet will shift south as a round of impulses traverse the region with sufficient moisture in place, supporting rain chances Tues-Thur. In that period, a stronger upper trough will move through the region Tues-Wed, supporting a good chance of TS along with much cooler temps by Wed when many areas on the plains will see highs in the 60s. After a cool Wed and Thur, things will quickly warm back up the remainder of the week, with chances for storms at times as moisture returns. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1123 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...15