Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 262325

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
525 PM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Current surface analysis shows cold front well to the south and
east of the forecast area, with high pressure centered over
northern WY. Upper level analysis shows high amplitude ridge
centered over the Pacific NW and Great Basin, with northwesterly
flow over the Northern Plains. Skies are mostly sunny across much
of the area with cumulus clouds generally dissipating. North to
northwest winds are breezy across the SD plains, but are starting
to diminish. Temps are mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s across
the plains, 50s in the Black Hills.

Quiet and warm weather is expected for Friday and much of the
weekend as the ridge to the west slowly moves east across the
Rockies and eventually into the Plains. A gradual warming trend will
take place through Sunday, with highs over the weekend mostly in the
70s. Some 80s are likely across portions of the western SD plains on
Sunday. A weak trough/cold front passage will keep winds north to
northwest through Friday, with winds switching to southerly over the
weekend. Winds will be breezy on Saturday and Sunday as the warmest
air builds in.

As ridge begins to shift east of the area on Sunday, a trough will
move across the western US. Southwest flow aloft will develop across
the Rockies and Northern Plains later Sunday into early next week.
Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to increase
late on Sunday, and especially on Monday, as a cold front slowly
moves across the region. Would not be surprised to see a couple of
stronger storms, especially on Monday. Latest medium range models
show the trough moving over the area Monday night and Tuesday, with
the best chances for rainfall. Unsettled weather could linger into
midweek as additional shortwave energy moves across the Rockies.
Temperatures will drop back to below average levels for Tuesday and
the middle part of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 524 PM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions expected through the period.




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