794
FXUS62 KMLB 241800
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
200 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. FEW/SCT030-60 200-250 this
afternoon. E/ESE winds around 10 KT behind the sea breeze this
afternoon, with gusts up to 20 KT possible. Isolated showers will
be possible along the sea breeze today, but timing and coverage
are too low to warrant VC mention. Winds will become light and
variable overnight before becoming SW at 5-10 KT by mid-morning.
The east coast sea breeze will once again form and back the winds
to the E/SE and increase winds to around 10 KT in the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast to form
along the sea breeze. Have included VCSH starting at 19Z and VCTS
starting a VCTS at MCO. Will likely add VC wording for other
sites in later TAF packages, as well as TEMPOs.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Went ahead and added a generous 20 pct chance of showers and
lightning storms to the forecast along the sea breeze collision
over the far western interior in the evening, and a silent 10 pct
buffer eastward through most of the inland counties, since CAMs
have been consistently showing some convection as moisture
increases a bit. GOES satellite imagery shows PWATs generally
1.2-1.3" across ECFL this morning, backed by the TBW and XMR
soundings, and higher PWATs 1.4-1.5" to the north drifting towards
the area. Models indicate PWATs could increase up to 1.6" by the
evening, which is above normal for the time of year though not
anomalously.

Otherwise, forecast remains unchanged and on track for mostly dry
and warming conditions. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies as
toasty afternoon highs inland get into the L-M90s, with a few
western parts of Osceola and Okeechobee counties reaching towards
the U90s. Highs along the coastal corridor top of in the M-U80s,
with those M80s generally just the barrier islands, thanks to the
sea breeze turning winds onshore around 10 mph by around 2 PM. The
ECSB breeze will push inland through the rest of the afternoon,
colliding with the WCSB near the Kissimmee River and through Lake
County in the evening around 8 PM. Winds become light and variable
overnight, with temperatures dropping to the U60-L70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Today-Tonight...The pressure gradient will remain weak with
light/variable morning winds becoming onshore by late
morning/early afternoon, esp at the coast. Winds will become
light SSW again by late evening or overnight. Seas 2-3 ft. Mostly
dry conditions.

Sat-Tue...Continued favorable boating conditions, though it will be
increasingly hot and any shower/lightning storm chances will only be
ISOLD to WDLY SCT - most likely across the Gulf Stream. Winds again
become onshore each late morning and afternoon with daily sea breeze
regime (10-15 kts along the coast), but will veer a light offshore
component or become light/variable each overnight period. Seas
mostly AOB 3 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  92  71  93 /   0  20  10  10
MCO  72  96  73  97 /  10  30  10  20
MLB  72  90  73  91 /   0  30  20  20
VRB  71  92  72  93 /   0  40  20  20
LEE  73  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  20
SFB  72  95  73  96 /  10  30  10  20
ORL  73  96  74  97 /  10  30  10  20
FPR  70  93  71  93 /   0  40  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Watson